Halt in ‘war games’ irks Asian allies
WASHINGTON: President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend major US military exercises in South Korea could weaken allied defences, depending on the length and scope of the hiatus. But the potential for diplomatic damage seems even greater.
The United States, South Korea and Japan were making a public display of solidarity on Thursday over the outcome of Mr Trump’s summit with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. But analysts and former officials with experience i n US-Asia policy were shaken by Mr Trump’s failure to inform the Asian allies — or even the Pentagon — before mothballing the military manoeuvres.
“Those exercises are important because they are deterrence,’’ said Chuck Hagel, a former defence secretary in the Obama administration. He welcomed Mr Trump’s willingness to talk to Mr Kim but worried that the president has underestimated the complications he has introduced for the Pentagon by suspending the military drills.
“You don’t just shut them on and off like a water faucet,’’ he said.
The exercises in question go well beyond routine training, which apparently is unaffected by Mr Trump’s decision. Large-scale exercises are done to ensure that evolving tactics, procedures and plans can be carried out smoothly and that US and South Korean forces are in sync. They also are a means of showing allied solidarity, which is part of the psychology of deterring enemy attack.
The US has stationed combat troops in South Korea since the Korean War ended in 1953 with an armistice and no peace treaty. The more than 28,000 US forces serve as a military tripwire against North Korean aggression. The next major exercise with South Korea is named Ulchi Freedom Guardian. Last year’s version was held for 11 days in August and involved about 17,500 US troops.
The US has insisted these kinds of drills are defensive measures to demonstrate US and South Korean preparedness to respond promptly to any aggression by the North. But when Mr Trump announced his decision to halt them, he characterised them as “provocative’’ and as “war games’’.
“Those are literally the North Korean and Chinese talking points,’’ said Christine Wormuth, the Pentagon’s top policy official from 2014 to 2016.
In a further explanation for suspending these major exercises, Mr Trump said they “cost a fortune’’, though even the Pentagon, which foots the bill for US participation has been unable to estimate the cost.
Defence Secretary Jim Mattis’ office on Wednesday sent out a request to military commands for cost estimates for the main military exercises held on and around the Korean Peninsula, according to officials who spoke about the request on condition of anonymity to discuss internal communications. In the past, some estimates for smaller exercises have been about $2 million (about 65 million baht), while some larger ones have cost $15 million or more — all relatively minor expenses for a department with a budget now exceeding $700 billion.
On Thursday, the Pentagon issued a brief statement saying Mr Mattis had discussed the summit outcome with his South Korean counterpart, including how they can work together to “fulfill the president’s guidance’’ on military exercises.
Michael Green, who was Asia director on the National Security Council staff during the George W Bush administration, said the likely damage from suspending drills is multiplied by Mr Trump’s failure to inform South Korean and Japanese officials in advance and his focus on cost-savings. This was then compounded, in Mr Green’s view, by Mr Trump’s dubious assertion on Twitter that North Korea no longer poses a nuclear threat.
“The No 1 problem with this, geopolitically, is that it suggests to our allies that we are just incompetent, that we don’t recognise the threat,’’ Mr Green said.
Harry Harris, the retired Navy admiral and former commander of US forces throughout the Pacific, said on Thursday he believes the North’s nuclear weapons still pose a threat, but he endorsed Mr Trump’s decision to suspend US military exercises.
“We should give major exercises a pause to see if Kim Jong-un is serious about his part of the negotiations,’’ Mr Harris said at a Senate hearing to consider his nomination to be US ambassador in Seoul. Mr Harris said the suspension of drills provides “breathing space’’ for progress in negotiating North Korea’s nuclear disarmament.
Without mentioning that South Korea and Japan were not consulted before Mr Trump suspended drills, Mr Harris said such decisions should not be taken unilaterally.
Senator John McCain, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, called the suspension of drills a mistake, a bad negotiating tactic and a move that undermines US security.
“We must not impose upon ourselves the burden of providing so-called `good faith’ concessions as the price for continued dialogue,’’ the Arizona Republican said in a statement.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, meanwhile, briefed his South Korean, Japanese and Chinese counterparts on the Singapore summit. Mr Pompeo said “staying closely aligned with our allies ... will be critical’’ to success with North Korean denuclearisation.