ABOUT Politics
Urgent need to re-draw constituencies has EC in a fluster Thawatchai Anampong’s possible defection is not worrying Democrats much Questions surrounding emergence of new parties may soon be answered
A primary concern
Two issues have come to the surface prompting the Election Commission (EC) to question its own authority and tiptoe around a possible legal land mine.
The lead-up to February’s election will be full of poll-related missions the EC has to fulfil. Two of these will require urgent attention as they could prove disruptive for the election roadmap if not resolved.
The EC is required to re-draw the boundaries of constituencies nationwide now that the organic bill on the election of MPs is on course to being royally endorsed and published in the Royal Gazette, even though it won’t enter into effect until 90 days after its publication.
There will be 350 constituency MP seats at stake in the poll and the EC’s job is to figure out how the constituencies will be designated to create room for all of these MPs. Some will be made bigger while some will shrink in relation to their population of voters.
Such a designation is a prerequisite before the second issue, namely, the primary votes to be held by each political party, can be tackled.
However, the parties have complained that without a new constituency map drafted, the primaries can’t go ahead as they must know for sure where the constituencies will be before they can organise a primary to select their MP candidates.
The designation of the constituencies and the primaries are, therefore, intertwined. The first part must be settled quickly as the election clock is ticking.
A political source said the EC is being pressed to get the designation rolling in earnest. But the 90-day snarl has threatened to stall the process and push the primaries toward the end of the year.
If so, many parties will not have enough time to catch their breath as they will be frantically searching for MP candidates to run in the poll through the primaries and mounting an election campaign at around the same time.
The prospect of everything happening more or less simultaneously and too close to the election has unnerved and even agitated many parties, especially those with too few registered members to hold the primaries in some constituencies.
They need to admit new members but any such possibility has been written off by the fact that the ban on political activities that has been maintained by the National Council for Peace and Order since the 2014 coup has not been lifted.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Kreangam, one of the most seasoned legal experts in the government, has been called in to tackle the technical and legal wrangles surrounding the constituency issue.
His foremost task was to offer his assurance to the EC that it has the complete and undisputed authority to carve out the
constituencies. The deputy premier suggested the commission is free to re-draw them right away.
However, the EC was reportedly having second thoughts following Mr Wissanu’s suggestion.
It allegedly figured that if it were to reshuffle the constituency deck, it would stand a real chance of being taken to court for malfeasance in office if something were to go wrong with the poll on account of a faulty designation.
An expert in the EC said the most sensible and practical option now would be to resort to the current MP election law, enacted in 2007, which is fast approaching the end of its life.
The law should give the EC ample confidence that it has enough legal support to redraw the constituencies without hesitation.
Democrat Party leader Abhisit Vejjajiva said he has always protested against the delayed enforcement of the MP election law because that has a knock-on effect on how the constituencies are designated.
If started early, he said, this would enable the political parties to open their provincial branches in a timely manner in preparation for the primary votes.
He has responded, with reservations, to growing calls for the primaries to be cancelled due to the anticipated hassles in arranging the vote.
Mr Abhisit insisted the current charter intends to widen public participation in selecting political parties’ MP candidates.
Defection not a great loss
The Democrat Party may be bled of some of its former MPs who have shown their intention to defect to other parties. However, the country’s oldest political party is not overly concerned because it is confident the defectors will have a hard time surviving the next election under another party’s ticket, according to a party source.
One of the possible defectors is Thawatchai Anampong, who is an eight-time former Democrat MP for Chanthaburi.
A Democrat source said Mr Thawatchai is nearly all packed and ready to head to the Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT) Party, reputed to be closely aligned to Suthep Thaugsuban, the former leader of the People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) protest movement, that has morphed into the Muan Maha Prachachon Foundation, which Mr Suthep now chairs.
Mr Thawatchai is the latest name from the Democrats jumping ship just as the party was assessing its defection situation, according to the source.
The Democrat’s arch rival, the Pheu Thai Party, is also believed to be suffering a political “brain drain” as several of its former MPs in the Northeast are understood to be the willing victims of siphoning, where a newly established political party takes politicians with promising prospects at an election under its wing.
Mr Thawatchai has substantial support from voters in Chanthaburi which explains his victories in many a past election.
At the height of the PDRC protest against the Pheu Thai Party-led administration in 2014, he openly threw his backing behind the popular movement.
He rallied PDRC supporters as part of a campaign to combat the political influence of former premier Thaksin Shinawatra who was said to be controlling Pheu Thai.
In the early stage of the PDRC’s formation in late 2013, Mr Suthep, who was then the Democrat secretary-general, announced he had quit the party to lead the PDRC.
Soon after that, Mr Thawatchai set up a PDRC provincial chapter which drew support for the mass protest from neighbouring Trat.
Mr Thawatchai has retained solid support in Chanthaburi despite defecting to the Chart Patthana Party many years ago before returning to the Democrats.
With Mr Thawatchai’s imminent departure from the Democrats, there remain at least two former MPs in Chanthaburi who are likely to stick with the party and contest the next poll, expected in February. They are Yukon Chanawatpanya and Pongvej Vejjajiva, according to the source.
The source said Chanthaburi is one of the Democrats’ strongest bastions in the East. The party managed a clean sweep there in previous elections in 2007 and 2011.
The next election will provide a litmus test of the Democrats’ electioneering strength. If it can keep it together, it would mean Mr Thawatchai will likely lose the race if he leaves the party to join another.
In the 2011 poll, Mr Thawatchai stood in Chanthaburi’s Constituency 1, which was regarded as the Democrats’ safest in the province.
However, the source said the party may not feel sorry to see Mr Thawatchai leave as it has found someone it could field in Constituency 1 at the next election.
It may only be a matter of time before the party announces its choice to replace Mr Thawatchai as the candidate for Constituency 1.
When the announcement is made, it might come as a nasty surprise for Mr Thawatchai.
Filling his shoes could well be a person he has confided in, a person close to him with the potential to intimidate him and be his most formidable rival in an election race, according to the source.
Doubts and roundabouts
Among new political parties said to be affiliated with the military, Palang Pracharat is being touted as the biggest prospect.
Registered by a political group led by local community leader Chuan Chuchan, this political outfit is believed to outgun the Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT) in terms of political and financial support.
According to political sources, Palang Pracharat has a certain edge largely because it has enlisted the services of key government figures known to support Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha as prime minister after the election next year.
These power players are reportedly in high gear in their attempts to recruit as many politicians as possible to better their chances of winning the election.
With this tactic, Gen Prayut will be an “insider” candidate, nominated on the party’s prime minister shortlist.
One of several people associated with Palang Pracharat, whose name is the same as the current government’s Pracharath peoplestate partnership development programme, is Deputy Prime Minister Somkid Jatusripitak.
The economic guru of the Prayut administration has maintained good ties with several political groups over the past 15 years since the formation of the Thai Rak Thai Party.
The political targets are said to be veteran politicians, especially those who won seats in the 2011 polls, only to be forced out following the May 22, 2014 coup.
It is reported that Somsak Thepsuthin, of the Wang Nam Yom faction, and former transport minister Suriya Juengrungruangkit have been “on tour” persuading ex-MPs, mostly in Pheu Thai, to defect to the new party.
By the end of this month, the public should know who the members of Palang Pracharat are provided that the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) agrees to partially lift a ban on political activities to allow political parties to prepare for election primaries.
Politicians will be forced to reveal their political allegiance when it is time for election primaries, according to the sources.
However, the ACT Party, which was cofounded by street protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban, cannot be overlooked even though it does not have vast resources at its disposal like the heavyweight ones.
The former secretary-general of the nowdefunct People’s Democratic Reform Committee has admitted he is reneging on his pledge to exit politics by accepting a position as a recruiter and fund-raiser for the ACT.
According to sources, Mr Suthep — known for his generosity and dedication to friends and allies — alone is quite enough to bring the newly registered party election glory.
The former Democrat secretary-general is also betting on national reforms, and this stance may hit the right note with some voters.
The ACT is expected to win at least 20 seats in the polls if the former Democrat heavyweight continues as the face and voice of the party and pushes the reform agenda forward.
Twenty seats may sound not much, but in the current political environment, that total is deemed satisfactory.
The Chartthaipattana Party is reportedly hoping to only retain less that 10 seats in its Suphan Buri and Angthong strongholds.
Within the next few weeks or so, politics will be entering a new chapter and lingering suspicions and doubts, especially those involving party switching, are expected to be confirmed or removed.