Dammed if you do
Laos’ latest announcement of a decision to go ahead with its fourth 770-megawatt Pak Lay dam project has sent an alarming sign that the tide of hydropower development on the mainstream Mekong River is not just unstoppable, but accelerating. Having pledged to become “the battery of Southeast Asia”, the land-locked nation has planned to build nine hydropower dams on the Mekong to generate electricity which will be mainly sold to Thailand and Vietnam. Cambodia has two projects in the pipeline in which generated power will be sold to Vietnam.
Under the 1995 Mekong Agreement, signed by Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam, any mainstream dam or water use project must undergo a six-month “prior consultation” process held among the four nations.
To the dismay of anti-dam activists, this is not an approval process but a diplomatic platform to allow other countries to raise their concerns over possible transboundary negative impacts the project could cause on their territories, so as to negotiate better conditions for its development.
That explained why Laos managed to go ahead with its first dam, the 1,260MW Xayaburi project, after earlier seeking consultations from 2010-2011.
During that time, there were concerns raised by other countries and experts over what effects the project could have on the river’s flow, fish migration and sedimentation which will eventually damage fishery and agriculture in the region. Studies pointed out that the cascade of 11 dams could make the impact more severe.
Amid mounting opposition, Laos decided to proceed with it and only promised to alter the design of the dam, which is now nearly complete, to accommodate concerns, or to put it in other words, to make it less destructive to the environment and the people.
In 2013, Laos submitted the second 260MW Don Sahong project located in the South for regional consultation, followed by the third 912MW Pak Beng project in the North in 2016.
As public opposition grew, Thailand from this year decided to put its plan to buy electricity from the Pak Beng dam on hold citing the current surplus in the country’s power reserves.
But the delayed purchase did not slow the pace of Laos’ hydro development. To the surprise of many, the Pak Lay project was tabled for consultation last week, far ahead of its planned construction in 2022.
For a country that relies mainly on the mining and electricity generation for its economic growth, it is understandable why Laos did not want to delay it. The World Bank last year estimated the country’s economic growth for 2017 to be lower than in previous years, at 6.7%, partly due to slow growth in power generation and exports.
In addition to the 11 planned dams, there are more than 120 smaller projects in operation or planned on tributaries of the Mekong in all four countries.
Like the other three governments, influential donors to the Mekong River Commission, the body that coordinates the consultation, has been critical of the potential impact, but failed to stop Laos from damming the river.
With Laos pledging to mitigate the impact, donor governments such as Australia, Japan, the European Union and Sweden should try to make the best use of the open window.
They need to offer help, based on either their expertise or experience in dam operation, on how to make these hydro projects least damaging. More importantly, they should come up with a new strategy to convince the country to pause the development of future projects.
The Mekong River has already suffered flow changes due to dams in China. With more planned that will be operated by Laos and Cambodia in the lower part of the river, the biggest losers in this pursuit of economic growth are the 60 million people living in the basin.