TNSC more upbeat after June results

Buoyed by continued export growth in June, the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), which supports local exporters, is more confident that the country’s export growth could hit 9% this year.

According to TNSC chairwoman Ghanyapad Tantipipatpong, outbound shipments are highly likely to exceed the earlier forecast of 8%, boosted by the weaker baht and the escalating trade spat between the United States and China, the latter of which is expected to first benefit, then harm Thai exports.

“Based on actual export performance in June, Thai exports fared quite well in almost all key markets, be they mature markets, emerging markets or dynamic markets,” she said. “Key positive factors to drive export growth this year include stronger demand from Thailand’s trading partners, particularly mature markets such as Japan and the US, higher imports of capital goods that indicate continued investment in Thailand’s manufacturing sector, more export diversification to emerging markets, the baht’s weakness and the government’s active e-commerce promotion and development.”

The TNSC suggested the government help find substitute markets for exporters of products that are subject to the higher US tariffs; promote the use of trade privileges under free trade agreements; and rev up trade talks on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TransPacific Partnership (CPTPP), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the bilateral trade pacts with EU, Turkey, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

Exporters are also being urged to increase the use of domestic currency invoicing and hedging to reduce exchange rate risk.

The Commerce Ministry reported on July 20 that Thailand’s customs-cleared exports rose 8.2% year-on-year in June, fetching US$21.78 billion (725 billion baht), after growing 11.4% in May.

Exports in baht terms edged up 0.8% last month to 652.58 billion baht.

Shipments to most markets except the Middle East, Brunei, Australia, Switzerland and Latin America saw expansion, with extraordinary double-digit increases seen in the Philippines, India, Myanmar, Cambodia, Africa and Canada.

Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products rose 4.5% in June to $3.46 billion, boosted by higher shipments of rice (+5.6%), tapioca (+1.5%), frozen chicken (+5.9%), vegetables and fruits (+8.6%) and sugar (+9.6%).

Overall industrial product shipments have posted growth for 16 straight months, up 8.2% in June at $17.46 billion, led by computers and components (+12%), automobiles and parts (7.5%), plastic pellets (+20.3%) and chemical products (+33.6%).

The escalating China-US trade row has yet to affect Thai shipments, as shipments to the US market grew by 6.9% in June to $2.49 billion, while shipments to China grew by 11.8% to $2.49 billion.