Thai ‘Game of Thrones’ only just beginning
To a certain extent, the future Thai political landscape has become clearer judging from the activities of various political camps last week. One was the meeting on Sunday of the Ruamphalang Prachachartthai Party or Action Coalition for Thailand (ACT), backed by veteran politician Suthep Thaugsuban, a former leader of the nowdefunct People’s Democratic Reform Committee protest movement.
Mr Suthep had announced that the party will be people-centred and its leader and executives would be selected by “the people” themselves.
But at the meeting in Bangkok, it was him, not the people, who nominated MR Chatumongol Sonakul, former permanent finance secretary and former governor of the Bank of Thailand, as leader and six others as executives. MR Chatumongol won 331 votes during the party’s first official meeting, attended by 339 founding members from all provinces nationwide.
The selection of MR Chatumongol was somewhat of a surprise after party co-founder Anek Laothamatas, earlier poised to clinch the leadership, withdrew his bid and backed MR Chatumongol’s nomination.
What is more interesting, however, is reading between the lines of the statement delivered by MR Chatumongol after his selection. He made it clear that his party might join hands with the pro-military regime Phalang Pracharat Party which is believed to be a political machine working to secure Prime Minister Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return to power as a non-elected PM after a general election tentatively planned for next year.
And the ACT also opened the door for an alliance with the Democrat Party where Mr Suthep once served as secretary-general.
But when asked about the Pheu Thai Party, MR Chatumongol said he was not sure there would still be “a Pheu Thai” when election time comes.
Based on political developments over the past several years, we shouldn’t take this remark lightly or dismiss it as a joke.
Mr Suthep earlier publicly expressed his support for Gen Prayut’s return to power after the poll. His later reversal of that stance (insisting he never said that) was thought to be nothing but an attempt to dodge further criticism.
It is hard to deny that the prolonged street protests led by Mr Suthep was the pretext for the May 22, 2014 coup led by Gen Prayut. After the coup, Mr Suthep admitted to the Bangkok Post that he privately and actively chatted with Gen Prayut about bringing down then prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra and her
government, including the period leading up to the coup when Yingluck was defence minister.
If his remark is true, there is no doubt about how strong the relationship between him and Gen Prayut is.
So, it comes as no surprise that Pheu Thai members are furious about the remark by MR Chatumongol who they claim was “selected by Mr Suthep” to be ACT leader.
In layman’s terms, MR Chatumongol is hinting that that three political parties — ACT, Phalang Pracharat and the Democrats — will form a coalition government after the poll and the Pheu Thai Party may be left out in the cold. Some believe the implication is that the Pheu Thai Party may eventually be dissolved altogether.
Such speculation is not irrational. The Election Commission recently launched a probe into a meeting held overseas in June between a group of key Pheu Thai members and Thaksin Shinawatra, deposed premier and former leader of this political camp who lives in selfimposed exile abroad. In a video clip of the meeting leaked to the public, Thaksin told the party members that Pheu Thai will win in every constituency in the
Northeast in the next poll.
According to the poll agency, Thaksin’s advice to the party members fits the definition of “direct or indirect influence by an outsider on a party”, which is banned under sections 28 and 29 of the organic law on political parties. If found guilty, the party can be dissolved under that law.
As for the Democrats, they are distancing themselves from talk of a coalition. Their leader, Abhisit Vejjajiva, said he does not see the benefit of joining with other parties to form the government if their policies and ideology are different from those of his party.
But politics is politics. There is no guarantee that the Democrats will not
cooperate with the ACT and Phalang Pracharat, whether in government or opposition. And both are more likely than any alliance with Pheu Thai.
Meanwhile, Pheu Thai is still struggling to find a new leader capable of rallying the party to an election victory. Anakot Mai, or the Future Forward Party, led by Thananthorn Juangroongruangkit, one of the heirs to Thailand’s biggest auto-parts conglomerates, seems to be the sole party ready to ally itself with Pheu Thai.
But after the excitement of its inception, the party seems to have lost momentum in terms of public attention.
Yodchanan Wongsawat, a nephew of Thaksin, has recently been floated as a
candidate to lead Pheu Thai. This speculation, coming, as it does, from unnamed sources, is likely a move to test the water ahead of his camp making any formal overtures towards the position.
Son of ex-premier Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin’s brother-in-law, Mr Yodchanan is a PhD graduate in electrical engineering from the University of Texas at Arlington. He is not a new face in politics. He won the seat for Chiang Mai in the 2014 poll which was nullified by the Constitutional Court later.
Still, Pheu Thai has a dilemma.
If Mr Yodchanan is selected as party leader, Pheu Thai could be seen as being under the influence of Thaksin and thus would be at risk of being a target for dissolution. But if someone other than a Shinawatra is selected, it would likely be at a greater risk of losing in the election.
Nevertheless, the future of the political parties seems somewhat clearer than that of Gen Prayut. The prime minister has hit the road for his mobile cabinet trips, supposedly trying to promote his government’s policies to the electorate, but stayed mum over his political future.
Some believe that the implication is that the Pheu Thai Party may eventually be dissolved altogether.