Birth rewards fail the test
The government’s plan to encourage more births by young couples, forlorn from the start, has produced nothing. It’s a familiar scene. From Singapore and China, from Europe and now Thailand, planners have dreamed of reversing the ageing of their countries. While it may seem logical to some, it has failed everywhere it has been tried. Failure in Thailand seems certain as well.
By encouraging couples to have more babies, the government is combating just about every common and current society norm. Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha may have policies aimed at returning the country to “the good old days” in certain fields, but couples will not return to the family-making practices of the 19th and early 20th century. It once was common for wives to bear five to 10 children; those days are not returning.
It is not for lack of trying. For example, the military regime has increased its monthly child-support payments. Government approved that rise in May. Women and families insured under the Social Security Office (SSO) got a 50% increase in the “baby bonus”, paid from birth to six years. Fifty percent sounds like an actual incentive to have more children. But the rise was from a base of 400 baht, increasing to 600. For most women, who are well aware of the cost of raising a child, 600 baht a month amounts to no incentive at all.
Government spokesman Lt Gen Sansern Kaewkamnerd tried to spin the increase. If a woman has as many as three children, the government will now backdate her support payment to 2015. There is no known positive response. The ageing of the country continues, the average age is increasing, the number of young people continues to decline. Companies have stepped up their timetables to automate and use robots and AI. From large manufacturing to fast-food restaurants, robots are rapidly taking over the labour.
A seemingly isolated event publicised last week is actually a common occurrence. A report from Phichit noted that three small schools have shut down, and 13 others face imminent closure and forced mergers with other, larger schools in the area. The reason in every case is identical: Fewer students and a shortage of teachers. This trend is accelerating slowly, but soon will be obvious. Within seven years, the Thai population will begin to drop. Current actuarial charts show that today’s 70 million Thais will be 62 million by 2050. The country’s average age today is 37 but in 2050 it will be above 49.
Nor is this a Thai problem, of course. A great failure has been recorded in China. Almost in a panic about suddenly noticed ageing, Beijing lifted the long-term law of one family-one child. New propaganda is broadcast nationwide for Chinese to have more babies. But couples shrugged. They are no longer interested in having even a two-child family.
Exactly as in Thailand, couples have increasingly delayed having even one child. Two-job couples devote more time to other goals, such as building their careers. After 50 years of constant birth-control pressure in Thailand, just as by harsh and unremitting penalties in China, couples have become used to having an only child. More often, they have no children at all.
No government including Thailand is going to populate its way out of the ageing crisis. And there is no other single programme that can help. Planning for the care of an increasingly aged population is virtually non-existent, and there is not enough money to fund sufficient pensions for older citizens that will provide a healthy life.
Immigration can help, meaning more opportunities for citizenship for foreign migrants. Technology is key, but machines and AI are of minimal help in caring for the elderly. The hope of a sudden surge in births is entirely misplaced.
Actuarial charts show that today’s 70 million Thais will be 62 million by 2050.