Exports jump 8.7%, rebounding from September let-down

Thai exports bounced back in October, boosted by higher shipments of fuel, gold, petrochemicals and agricultural products after September’s surprise decline of 5.2% year-on-year, the first dip in 19 months.

The Commerce Ministry reported yesterday that customs-cleared exports rose 8.7% year-on-year in October, fetching US$21.75 billion.

Export value for the first 10 months expanded favourably at 8.2% year-on-year to $211.5 billion, exceeding the ministry’s target of 8%.

Imports increased by 11.2% year-on- year in October to $22 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $279.5 million. For the first 10 months of 2018, import value rose 14.8% to $208.9 billion, yielding a trade surplus of $2.55 billion.

Industrial products returned to growth in October after registering a contraction for the first time in 19 months in September. Shipments of industrial products rose 6.8% last month to $17.1 billion, led by exports of oil-related products (+29.2%), gold (+241%), jewels and accessories ex gold (+21.1%) and facsimiles, telephones and parts (+33.7%).

Agricultural and agro-industrial shipments expanded 12.2% to $3.57 billion after a contraction of 0.6% in September, with growth led by most agricultural products such as sugar (+77.8%), rice (+28.2%), cassava (+18.5%), frozen and processed chicken (+15.6%) and frozen and processed fruits and vegetables (+10.6%).

For the first 10 months of 2018, exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products expanded by 4.3%, while exports of industrial products rose 7.9% on the same period last year.

Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office,

said Thai exports in mature and dynamic markets expanded continuously. Exports to Japan, India, the Asean 5 and Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam grew by 18.7%, 12%, 24.4% and 18.2%, respectively.

Exports to the US market maintained their positive momentum and registered 7.2% growth last month, the highest in six months.

More importantly, shipments to China were back on track with positive growth of 3%. Nonetheless, export growth to other markets showed a slight contraction, especially Australia, the Middle East, Latin America and Russia/CIS.

“The Commerce Ministry is confident that export growth in 2018 will exceed the target of 8%,” Ms Pimchanok said, citing the robust growth of major trading partners’ economies, the diversity of Thai products and Thailand’s export competitiveness.

“Unsettled trade disputes and policy uncertainty could slow the world economy and trade growth in 2019,” she said. “This reflects a decrease in industrial production and manufacturing purchasing managers’ indices in both developed and emerging markets.

“Furthermore, trade retaliation between major trading partners and the downward trend of oil prices pose downside risks to export growth in 2019,” Ms Pimchanok said.