2030 climate target far too ‘unambitious’
The meeting on climate change currently taking place in the city of Katowice, Poland, has occurred so quietly that few preconference reports can be found in the media. Negotiators will attempt to set up rules and plans on the implementation of the 2015 Paris climate accord. That document calls for nations to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions to keep temperatures from rising more than 2C compared to preindustrial levels.
However, scientists agree that the temperature rise should preferably be no more than 1.5C.
What difference does half a degree make?
The answer is given in the latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders.
The report paints a far more dire picture of the immediate consequences of climate change than previously thought. It says that avoiding any damage requires transforming the world economy at a speed and scale that has “no documented historic precedent”.
The report describes a world of worsening food shortages, wildfires, heavy rainfall, floods, species losses and, of course, sea-level rises that will continue even if CO2 emissions are cut to zero.
Even scientists who have intimate knowledge of climate change have professed to be “shocked and concerned” by the findings.
Only a month after the IPCC report was issued, the United States released its own scientific report that paints a similarly dire picture of the impacts of global warming on the country.
According to The Washington Post, the report affirms that the US is already experiencing more extreme heat, rainfall events, and large wildfires. Meanwhile, in 25 coastal US cities, incidents of flooding has increased and there is a risk that sea levels could rise between 1 feet to 4 feet, or even more, by the year 2100.
Regarding the rapid escalating levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the report states, “there is no climate analog for this century at any time in at least the last 50 million years”.
More surprising perhaps, is its
affirmation that climate change is driven almost entirely by human action, a conclusion at odds with US President Donald Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement and his reversal of Obama-era climate and energy policies.
The two reports have made it clear that the world needs better medicine to bring its fever down a notch to prevent overheating.
Looking towards Thailand, how has the country performed compared to others since Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha signed the Paris accord in 2015?
Upon signing up to the agreement, Thailand voluntarily commited to reducing greenhouse gases by 20-25% by 2030 based on 2005 emission levels.
Its performance so far is smack in the middle, achieving a rank of 36 among the 60 countries listed, according to a scorecard formulated by Berlin-based
environmental organisation Germanwatch. Comparatively, the US is ranked 56, followed by Australia at 57.
The ranking only grades the country’s performance relative to its commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Thailand’s target can at best be described as conservative.
Thailand’s modest ranking may give policymakers a false sense of satisfaction. On another list by Germanwatch — the 2017 Climate Risk Index which describes impacts of extreme weather events — Thailand is sitting uncomfortably at 10th spot. The country has been battered by severe weather during the past year and has suffered damages estimated at US$4.37 billion (143.5 billion baht).
Tara Buakamsri, Greenpeace’s Thailand representative, is one of those who believe Thailand could have done much more.
“Taking into account Thailand as Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, the 2030 target for Thailand is too unambitious,” he says.
He points out that the current target has not yet incorporated land use, landuse change, and the forestry sector while many projects initiated by the current regime contradict its emissions goal.
New coal-fired power plants have been promoted both in Thailand and neighbouring countries, Mr Tara says. Other observers say the Energy Ministry is only half-hearted in promoting solar energy for households, setting purchase price well below what it pays to large power producers.
Energy, transportation and industry are three sectors identified as the largest greenhouse gas emitters.
In its effort to expand industrial areas through designating special economic
zones and economic corridors, the Prayut regime has unabashedly suspended its emissions commitment.
Using his absolute power under Section 44, Gen Prayut allows forest reserves to be incorporated into industrial zones, suspends the enforcement of land use planning, and foregoes requirements for environmental impact studies for power plant projects.
And while rail projects have been expanded purportedly to promote mass transit, new highways and roads have also been initiated to accommodate motorised traffic.
The right hand does not know what the left hand is doing. Or more likely, the left hand is averting attention from what the right hand is trying to do.