REBOUND FOLLOWS TENTATIVE TRUCE

RECAP: Global stock markets rebounded earlier this week after a temporary truce of the tit-for-tat trade tariffs agreed by Chinese and

US leaders, while oil prices fell as producers bickered over the details of an output cut.

The SET index moved this week in a range of

1,648.33 and 1,677.99 points before closing at 1,649.99, up 0.5% from the previous week, in turnover averaging 45.2 billion baht a day for four operating days.

Institutional investors were net buyers of 9.7 billion baht, while foreign investors and brokerage firms bought 7.25 billion and 66.8 million worth of shares, respectively. On the other hand, retail investors were net sellers at 17.52 billion baht.

NEWSMAKERS: China and the US have called a 90-day truce in their trade dispute, agreeing not to impose any new tariffs while they attempt to negotiate a deal. However, markets continued to gyrate following comments by Donald Trump that he was a “Tariff Man” who would do whatever was necessary to protect US interests.

■ Casting a further cloud over the US-China talks was the arrest in Canada of the chief financial officer of Huawei Technologies for possible extradition to the US. Meng Wanzhou, daughter of the founder of the Chinese telecom giant, is alleged to have played a role in attempts to evade US trade sanctions on Iran.

■ Aggregate global wealth rose by US$14 trillion to $317 trillion in the 12 months to June 30, outpacing population growth, according to the 2018 Global Wealth Report by Credit Suisse. The US topped the table at $98 trillion, followed by China at $52 trillion.

■ The French government has suspended for six months a series of fuel tax increases that led to weeks of violent protests. PM Edouard Philippe said people’s anger must be heard, and no move would be made until there had been a proper debate with those affected.

■ Qatar says it will pull out of Opec in January, in a move expected to further irritate Saudi Arabia, which has been leading efforts to isolate the Gulf state economically and politically. Qatar said the oil producers’ cartel no longer served its interests, and that in any case it intended to focus on producing natural gas.

■ Opec members meeting in Vienna on Thursday failed to come to an agreement on production cuts to arrest a plunge in global oil prices. Talks were continuing yesterday, with Russia said to be the main holdout.

■ China’s Tencent Music kicked off its US initial public offering of 82 million depositary shares at $13-15 each, which would raise up to $1.2 billion. Final pricing will be announced on Tuesday, with trading on the New York Stock Exchange to follow.

■ The Thai Securities and Exchange Commission has revised a regulation auditors, stipulating listed companies change auditors every seven years and disallowing use of the same auditors for five years, effective early next year.

■ The Commerce Ministry expects the country’s headline inflation rate in 2019 to be between 0.7% and 1.7%, driven by higher energy and farm prices.

■ Household debt has reached its highest level since 2009, at an average of 316,623 baht per household, driven by underground debt which makes up over one-third of the total, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.

■ Consumer confidence hit a six-month low in November, attributed to concerns over ebbing tourism revenue following lower Chinese tourist arrivals, as well as falling crop prices.

■ The Thai National Shippers Council expects export growth of just 5% next year amid the deepening trade war between the US and China.

■ Banks are making noises about charging fees for cash transactions and ATM use as the move to digital banking gathers pace. The Bank of Thailand says it will take into account access to banking services and familiarity with technology before making a decision on whether to approve new fees.

■ Finance Minister Apisak Tantivorawong insists that a requirement for SMEs to produce a single set of financial accounts if they want to obtain loans remains on track for the beginning of next year.

■ Kiatnakin Bank (KKP) has raised a red flag about rebates and top-up car loans, which have created artificial demand resulting in an increase of special-mention loans for used cars.

■ Land sales have begun to surge at WHA Corporation Plc (WHA), partly because of demand from Chinese manufacturers seeking alternative production sites to skirt US tariffs, said David Nardone, head of the company’s industrial development unit.

■ General Motors Thailand says its local operation in Rayong will not be affected by a layoff programme in North America because the local plant has been a steady performer since a restructuring in 2015.

■ BEC World, the operator of Channel 3, has laid off 100 staff and says more cuts are likely as it seeks to rein in costs in the face of digital disruption. It said the cuts would continue at least until 2020, when its current broadcasting concession expires.

COMING UP: Japan will release third-quarter GDP figures on Monday, with Germany and Britain releasing trade figures the same day.

■ The British House of Commons will vote on the government’s Brexit deal on Tuesday. Most observers expect it to be defeated. Elsewhere, Germany will announce the ZEW economic sentiment index and Australia will announce November business confidence.

■ The US will announce November inflation data on Wednesday. The European Central Bank on Thursday will hold a briefing on its latest interest-rate decision and policy outlook.

■ Japan will announce the Tankan large manufacturers’ confidence index on Friday, and the US will announce November retail sales the same day.

STOCKS TO WATCH: Country Group Securities views that the retail sector will benefit from private consumption growth next year, with recommended purchase in BJC, CPALL and ROBINS. The firm suggests an accumulative buy of ADVANC and INTUCH when share prices drop below stock fundamentals as these ICT stocks offer high dividend gains. Stocks poised to continue gaining growth momentum in 2019 are PLANB, SEAFCO and SMPC.

■ UOB Kay Hian Securities Thailand recommends stock benefiting from Thailand’s general election slated for next year such as BBL, KBANK, CPALL, ROBINS and STEC. For accumulative buy, the firm suggests accumulating energy stocks, such as PTT and PTTEP, when share prices are weakened.

TECHNICAL VIEW: UOB Kay Hian Securities Thailand sees support at 1,640 points and resistance at 1,700. Maybank Kim Eng Securities Thailand sees support at 1,630 points and resistance at 1,720.