All eyes on election aftermath
Real estate players hope for stability, consistency and peace.
Political stability, policy consistency and a peaceful environment are the top requirements of local and foreign developers from the new government, rather than any incentives to boost the property market.
Barny Swainson, senior director and head of agency at property consultant Colliers International Thailand, said foreign investors are likely to continue their investment in the Thai property sector.
“Property investment from foreign investors under joint ventures has not dropped since 2015, with the majority from Japanese developers,” he said. “They will continue their investment this year and have a positive view on the general election.”
According to Colliers, foreign investment under joint ventures with local developers rose from 50 billion baht in 2015 to 55 billion baht, 75 billion baht and 110 billion baht during 2016-18.
This year the figure is expected to rise to 120 billion baht, which will boost cumulative value to 550 billion baht. There will also be new entrants from China making a large investment soon, Mr Swainson said.
By the number of joint venture projects over the past five years, Japan and China were the two biggest investors, representing 29% and 27% respectively. They were followed by a mix of China and Hong Kong (24%), Singapore (11%) and Hong Kong (9%).
Japan, one of the most conservative investors, has been the most active in the Thai property sector over the past five years. Almost two-thirds of joint venture project value originated from Japan, to the tune of 375 billion baht.
“Japanese investors have learned for the past few years that there would be a general election in Thailand this year,” Mr Swainson said. “The political situation is vital for foreign investments.”
By joint venture project value, Japan is followed by China (105 billion baht), Hong Kong (55 billion) and Singapore (23 billion).
Some 80% of joint venture project value during the past five years was in the residential segment and 20% was in commercial properties such as hotels, offices and retail.
Most investors have a strong focus on Bangkok, followed by Phuket and Pattaya, with a slight amount in Prachuap Khiri Khan, Rayong and Phangnga.
For Thai developers, the stability of the new government is the top priority, said Phattarachai Taweewong, associate director of the Colliers research department.
According to Colliers, new condo supply launched during the past five years under the military-led government totalled 245,000 units or 49,000 units a year on average.
Meanwhile, the number launched during 2009-13 totalled 219,000 units or 43,000 a year.
“These two figures suggest that stability is the most significant and what property developers really want, rather than any policy or incentives related to the property sector,” Mr Phattarachai said.
Aliwassa Pathnadabutr, managing director of property consultant CBRE Thailand, said the general election can boost the confidence of international investors in the property sector because they have a positive view towards Thailand restoring democracy.
“Very conservative investors may be concerned over the post-election situation,” she said. “Though there may be political unrest, it will not have an impact on the property sector like it did in past situations.”
Atip Bijanonda, president of the Housing Business Association, said policy consistency from the new government will be a key factor driving the property sector, as Thai property growth mostly relies on new infrastructure projects.
“The new government should continue key policies initiated by the earlier government, which are the economic driver,” he said. “There are many infrastructure projects in the pipeline that the new government needs to
move on.”
The projects include high-speed rail connecting three major airports, the Eastern Economic Corridor, doubletrack rail in many provinces and mass transit lines in Bangkok.
Chadatip Chutrakul, chief executive of Siam Piwat Co, the operator of Iconsiam, Siam Paragon, Siam Center and Siam Discovery, said the company will spend at least 70 billion baht over the next five years and the new government should create stability and a peaceful environment.
“Stable government will draw new expatriates to work in Thailand,” she said. “It should have clear policies to grab and maximise a chance to become Southeast Asia’s leader.”
Mrs Chadatip said the election is meaningful and the world is watching.
“During the past decade, there were so many things happening,” she said. “We have come so far. The private sector has not stopped investment, as we have a good foundation.”
Pornnarit Chuanchaisit, president of the Thai Real Estate Association, said that if the new government can be set up with no chaos, the economy will soar.
Anuphong Assavabhokhin, chief executive of SET- listed developer AP Thailand, agreed that politics would have no negative impact on the property sector, as long as unrest and violence are avoided.
‘‘ Japanese investors have learned for the past few years that there would be a general election in Thailand this year. The political situation is vital for foreign investments. BARNY SWAINSON Senior director, Colliers International Thailand