PLA intervention in Hong Kong looms
It’s seen as a last resort given potentially dire consequences. By Iain Marlow and Jeanny Yu
It has suddenly become one of the biggest questions in Hong Kong: What will the Chinese military do? After eight weeks of increasingly violent unrest — and more anti-government protests planned for this weekend — anxiety is growing that Beijing might call in the People’s Liberation Army. China seems willing to at least feed the speculation with hints and signals, including the release of a video on Wednesday showing troops practising riot control.
While a military intervention appears remote, the possibility has set nerves on edge in the former British colony and prompted at least one investment bank to flag it as a risk. Since Hong Kong returned to Chinese rule 22 years ago, the PLA’s troops in the city have played a minimal role. Should that change, the implications for both Hong Kong and China would be enormous.
The biggest fear for some is a repeat of the deadly crackdown that took place in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square three decades ago, potentially prompting the US to withdraw special trade privileges for Hong Kong. But even smaller-scale intervention could spark a knee-jerk exodus from the city’s financial markets, drag down property prices and prompt international companies to reconsider their presence in the territory, analysts say.
Hong Kong’s image as a cosmopolitan financial centre would risk suffering irreparable damage, as would the concept of “one country, two systems” that has underpinned the city’s success since the 1997 handover.
China, meanwhile, would face potential economic sanctions from the US and Europe, an emboldened pro-independence movement in Taiwan and increased financial risks for companies that rely on Hong Kong as a gateway to international investors — all while grappling with Donald Trump’s trade war and the slowest economic expansion since foreign investment collapsed after Tiananmen.
The consequences would be so severe that most analysts interviewed by Bloomberg News described military intervention as a highly unlikely scenario — a last resort that Chinese President Xi Jinping would only consider if protesters overwhelmed the local police force and put China’s control over the territory in doubt.
“Beijing is unlikely to use the PLA to quell the protests until it feels it has exhausted all other levers at its disposal,” said Euan Graham, a former Asia analyst at the UK’s foreign office who’s now executive director of Asian research and outreach at Australia’s La Trobe University. “However much Xi Jinping fears chaos within China’s borders and that the use of the PLA is legitimate in his eyes, above all he does not want to have the stain of another Tiananmen massacre.”
A Hong Kong government spokesman said last week that local authorities have the “full
capability” to maintain public order and that there’s no need to ask China’s military for assistance. Still, the spectre of intervention could discourage protesters from breaching what China says are its three bottom lines: “No harm to national security, no challenge to the central government’s authority and no using Hong Kong as a base to undermine China.”
In a July 24 news conference, Defence Ministry spokesman Senior Colonel Wu Qian cited a provision in Hong Kong’s charter that allows the local government to request assistance from the PLA for “the maintenance of public order.” While Sen Col Wu didn’t elaborate on whether that option was under discussion, he offered a warning.
“The behaviour of some radical demonstrators, challenging the authority of the central government and touching the bottom line of the principle of ‘one country, two systems’, is absolutely intolerable,” Sen Col Wu said, just three days after protesters surrounded China’s liaison office in Hong Kong and defaced the national emblem. “The Pearl of the Orient is not to be defiled.”
Major General Chen Daoxiang, commander of the PLA garrison in Hong Kong, echoed that sentiment this week. At an event to mark the 92nd anniversary of the PLA, Chen condemned violent protesters and said the garrison supports Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam.
The same day, the garrison posted a three-minute video on social media showing troops in riot gear battling mock protesters with tear gas, water cannons and armoured personnel carriers. “We have the determination, confidence and capability to safeguard China’s sovereignty, security and development interests, and to safeguard Hong Kong’s long-term prosperity and stability,” the garrison wrote in the post.
A senior Trump administration official told reporters the White House was monitoring a congregation of Chinese troops or armed police gathering across the mainland border from Hong Kong. The nature of the build-up was unclear, and the report coincided with a swearing-in ceremony for 19,000 officers in the neighbouring province of Guangdong.
Mr Trump weighed in on Thursday in Washington, calling the Hong Kong protests “riots” — the same label used by Chinese authorities. Mr Trump said he doesn’t know what China’s attitude is on the matter. “Somebody said that at some point they’re going to want to stop that,” he said. “But that’s between Hong Kong and that’s between China, because Hong Kong is a part of China.”
While the garrison has never been deployed at the request of Hong Kong’s government, it could in theory be called to action at a moment’s notice. An estimated 6,000 PLA troops are stationed in the city at any given time, with thousands more located across the border in Shenzhen, according to Rand Corp. The PLA’s Hong Kong headquarters sits in the city’s main business district, a few steps from Bank of America Tower.
Even though unrest has steadily escalated since demonstrations against a controversial extradition bill kicked into high gear in early June, James Tien, a businessman and former lawmaker, said the situation has yet to reach a level that would warrant PLA intervention. The protests have dented tourism, weighed on retail sales and disrupted some public transportation services, but for the most part Hong Kong residents and companies have been able to go about their daily business. Despite slipping from this year’s high, Hong Kong’s benchmark stock index is still up 9.5% since the end of December.
“It’s highly unlikely that Beijing would do that right now, because after all our police have the upper hand,” Mr Tien said. “They’re the ones with the tear gas and the rubber bullets, which are giving the protesters a tough time.”
Hu Xijin, the editor of China’s state-run Global Times, played down the prospect of using the PLA as Hong Kong’s “fire brigade” in a commentary. Troops would only be deployed in extreme cases, such as in response to a takeover of the city’s main government institutions by extremists, he said.
Officials in Beijing and Hong Kong may be hoping a tougher response from local authorities will be enough to bring the situation under control. This week, Hong Kong charged dozens of protesters with a colonial-era rioting statute that carries a 10-year prison term, the first time that Ms Lam’s government has deployed it since the protests began. The move spurred hundreds of demonstrators to surround a police station on Tuesday, leading to scuffles with officers.
One alternative form of intervention for Beijing might be the deployment of the People’s Armed Police, said Meia Nouwens, research fellow for Chinese defence policy and military modernisation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. The 660,000member paramilitary force is often the agency China relies on to guard sensitive sites like Tiananmen and quell unrest in places like the predominately Muslim region of Xinjiang.
Aside from calling in the PLA, other “worstcase scenario” options for Hong Kong include declaring martial law or a state of emergency, Kevin Lai, an economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd, wrote in a report to clients. Intervention from Beijing could prompt the US to revoke its preferential trading designation for Hong Kong, a potentially devastating blow for the city’s economy, Mr Lai said.