President to inherit Trump migrant bind
GUATEMALA CITY: Guatemalans are poised to elect a new president who will face a major challenge after the country agreed with Washington to act as a buffer against illegal immigration under pressure from US President Donald Trump.
Threatened with economic sanctions if it said no, the outgoing government signed an agreement in July to make Guatemala a so-called safe third country for migrants despite the endemic poverty and violence plaguing the Central American nation.
Voters must choose between conservative Alejandro Giammattei and his centre-left rival, former first lady Sandra Torres. Both veteran political campaigners have criticised the deal, but will probably be unable to do much to stop it.
Risa Grais-Targow, Latin America director at consultancy Eurasia Group, said while the agreement is facing a backlash in Guatemala, not honouring it would expose the country to the risk of taxes on remittances or tariffs on its goods. “The next president faces a loselose situation when it comes to managing the deal with the United States,” she said. “That is the biggest challenge the incoming president faces.”
A CID-Gallup opinion poll of 1,216 voters conducted between July 29 and Aug 5 gave Mr Giammattei the advantage going into the run-off vote, with 39.5% support, versus 32.4% for Ms Torres. The poll had a margin of error of 2.8 points.
Whoever takes office in January will inherit a country with a 60% poverty rate, widespread crime and unemployment, which have led hundreds of thousands of Guatemalans to migrate north. Between them, the two candidates have failed to win the presidency five times. Polling suggests that although Ms Torres came out on top in a first found of voting in June, her unpopularity may prove her undoing.
“I wasn’t going to vote, but ... seeing the circumstances I better vote so that Sandra doesn’t win,” said Ricardo Son, an 84-year-old retiree in Guatemala City. Many Guatemalans are fed up with the political class after corruption scandals led to the arrest of former President Otto Perez in 2015, and then threatened to unseat his successor, incumbent President Jimmy Morales, a former TV comedian.
Both candidates have vowed to fight corruption without “foreign interference,” an apparent allusion to a United Nations mission that brought down Mr Perez and went after Mr Morales.