Populists eye win in divided nation
WARSAW: Poles began voting yesterday in a polarising election which the governing populists look set to win on the back of welfare measures and attacks on LGBT rights, but their majority is at risk, giving opposition parties a narrow chance to snatch power.
The opposition received an unexpected last-minute boon when author Olga Tokarczuk, a known government critic who won the Nobel Prize for Literature on Thursday, urged Poles to choose wisely “between democracy and authoritarianism” in the ballot, calling it the “most important” since Poland shed communism in 1989.
In office since 2015 and led by expremier Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party has sought to mobilise poorer rural voters by coupling family values with a popular new child allowance, tax breaks for low-income earners and hikes to pensions and the minimum wage.
Widely regarded as Poland’s powerbroker, Mr Kaczynski has also stoked deep social division by attacking sexual minorities and rejecting Western liberal values, all with the tacit blessing of Poland’s influential Catholic Church which holds sway over rural voters.
Mr Kaczynski is also among several leaders in the European Union favouring greater national sovereignty over the federalism championed by powerhouses France and Germany.
Supported by outgoing EU Council President Donald Tusk — Mr Kaczynski’s arch-rival — the opposition Citizen’s Coalition (KO) draws on urban voters upset by the PiS’s divisive politics, judicial reforms threatening the rule of law, graft scandals and monopolisation of public media.
Condemning the anti-LGBT drive and close church ties, but sharing the PIS’s welfare goals, the left is set to enter parliament after a four-year hiatus.
Two separate opinion polls published on Friday suggested the PiS’s majority is at risk as it scored 40% to 41.7% support compared to a combined 41.4% and 45% for opposition parties.
“Turnout will decide whether the PiS governs alone, whether it must build a coalition, or even if it might lose its majority,” Anna Materska-Sosnowska, a Warsaw University political scientist. Turnout in the 2015 election was 50.92%.
Mr Kaczynski has capitalised on a populist backlash against liberal urban elites, similar to trends in Western Europe and the US.
His party’s bid to build a welfare state is addressed to Poles who reaped little benefit from the explosive growth and unfettered free-market drive after communism fell.
Analysts suggest that generous social outlays have also made the PiS a “teflon party”, cushioning its reputation amid a string of high-profile graft scandals involving senior members.