Post-digital age development
We must ensure that gains are shared more equally among all levels in society. By Pipit Aneaknithi
Iwas recently reading Kai-Fu Lee’s book, AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley and the New World Order, when the implications of what he was saying struck my mind. The author discusses how digital and AI technologies are revolutionising the economic and social landscape.
On its surface, the world will be transformed with maximum efficiency and limitless resource abundance. Underneath the neat grids of smart cities, however, digitally incapable people are being thoroughly marginalised, and deprived of economic means and social dignity.
It is a story that resonates through history: rapid economic development tends to have as a by-product a group of underprivileged citizens who cannot capitalise on change and are left behind. The likes of Oliver Twist, a fictional urchin often cited as a reflection of our capitalist world, are not unheard of even today.
Information technology advancement has played a vital role in economic development in recent decades, and in accordance with Moore’s Law, it will likely accelerate even further, with rapid digital transformation giving rise to exponential economic growth. This leads to the question of whether history will repeat itself.
The economic growth created by digital innovations will be phenomenal. At the same time, however, economic and social inequality may worsen as people with limited digital skills may not have equal access to technologies, which could lead to social polarisation or worse.
A lack of digital skills will eventually become the main social barrier for underprivileged people to live, to learn, to develop and work in a society. Regardless of how strong economic growth is, those lacking digital skills will be at risk of being left behind. If this is the case, it will turn out that we humans have made no progress in development at all.
INCLUSIVE GROWTH
The objectives of development have shifted dramatically. Whereas the focus in the past was solely on economic growth, today’s agenda often prioritises inclusiveness and social equality. The world is striving to achieve inclusive growth, so as not to leave anyone behind.
Thailand is no exception. Inclusive growth has been stipulated as one of the key goals of the 20-year national strategic plan (2018-37), to achieve the objectives of “security, prosperity and sustainability”. What concerns me is the social division in the post-digital age could be even more pronounced in Thailand, where growth has never been inclusive. Digital-driven
To achieve equitable and inclusive growth, mass customisation of policies will be needed to address the unique characteristics of different population segments.
growth could simply perpetuate and even exacerbate the country’s inequality issues.
My less than optimistic outlook is grounded in a survey on digital literacy and skills among 17,599 people nationwide. It found only 1.2% had sufficient digital skills to prepare them for future disruptions. The empirical results also show that age, education and income level have a significant causal relationship with the level of digital knowledge.
In other words, the “elderly, low-income earners and the less educated” are at high risk of being left behind. Applying these results to the socioeconomic and demographic structure of Thailand, I have found most of these at-risk people live in the northern, upper-central and northeastern regions.
Amartya Sen, the Nobel laureate in economics, said: “Economic growth cannot be sensibly treated as an end in itself. Development has to be more concerned with enhancing the lives we lead and the freedom we enjoy.”
The results outlined above have implications for human development policy. It is imperative to achieve equitable and inclusive growth, mass customisation of policies will be needed to address the unique characteristics of different population segments.
INDIVIDUALISED POLICIES
While digital technology might make the world more unequal, only digital technology can fix this current inequality. Indeed, the rise of big data is a key to the individualisation of development policies, an approach consistent with Sen’s capability approach to human development. Each individual’s capabilities must be enhanced to allow them the freedom to choose their own way of life. The broad policy recommendations are as follows:
1. Those at high risk of being left behind include the older generations (Baby Boomers and Generation X) with low levels of education and income. This group sometimes has difficulty adopting technology. The government should consider enhancing their digital literacy to the extent that they can readily access all available public services, and live their lives to the fullest.
2. Those at moderate risk include the older generations with either low levels of education or low income, and the newer generations (Gen Y and Gen Z) with low levels of both education and income. This population cohort has different weaknesses and strengths. The government should customise policies for each sub-group based on their different needs.
3. Those at low risk of being left behind include the newer generations with either low levels of education or low levels of income. This population group is highly flexible in adapting to rapid technological advancement. They are the driving force of present and future development. Educational policy should focus on increasing their digital skills.
4. Those at no risk of being left behind include the newer generations with high levels of education and income. This group has high flexibility to embrace upcoming advances. Unbounded by digital restrictions, they have the freedom to choose how they live. The government should encourage this demographic cohort to build their technological knowledge and skills to drive Thailand forward in the future.
Undoubtedly, digitally capable citizens will be pivotal in helping Thailand to achieve the aspirations set out under the 20-year national strategic plan. Nonetheless, the paradigm shift we need in development policy requires public administration reform. A designated agency with an integrated approach to bridge the inequality gaps in all aspects would be a good start.
Moreover, local authorities should be empowered through a system of decentralised governance with a rigorous budgetary system and comprehensive evaluation process in accordance with the agile government model. Only through these means can the government’s long-term vision of economic and social development be achieved and sustained.