Netanyahu has plenty to lose
Israeli leader taking unprecedented gamble, writes Ivan Levingston
Donald Trump had barely finished expounding on his vision for Middle East peace when the tectonic shifts he had unleashed became very real.
Annexing land seized by Israel in a 1967 war and that Palestinians claim for a state had long been taboo, even for nationalist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Not any more. As the two leaders, each facing legal threats to their rule, relished their time in the spotlight on Tuesday, television screens flashed reports the cabinet would meet within days to discuss bringing Jewish settlements built on the occupied West Bank into a bigger Israel.
Mr Netanyahu is, after all, a man in a hurry. Within weeks, he’ll face his third election race in less than a year after two tight and inconclusive polls, and this time the urgency to win has become even greater. Since the last vote, he’s been charged in three graft cases, and securing the extra support needed for victory offers him his only guaranteed opportunity to avoid jail — the chance to push through immunity legislation that would shield him from trial.
The optics of him standing beside Mr Trump as the US leader unveiled a plan so favourable to Israel were a world away from the televised announcement of his indictment just two months ago.
“He looks like the guy you want to run the country,” said pollster Mitchell Barak, a former Netanyahu aide.
While the prime minister chases an edge ahead of the March 2 election, unilateral annexation would sap the Palestinians’ dream of an independent homeland with the West Bank as its heart. The state of Palestine envisaged by President Trump — which Mr Netanyahu played a core role in conceptualising — would incorporate only 70% of the territory, far less than previous peace plans the Palestinians rejected.
By Wednesday, there was already doubt over the timetable for an annexation decision. Yariv Levin, a lawmaker in the prime minister’s Likud party, told Army Radio that technical reasons would delay a cabinet vote for several days. US Ambassador to Israel David Friedman told reporters a joint US-Israel committee would have to discuss annexation plans. “The hope is they’ll wait until after the election,” Mr Trump’s senior aide Jared Kushner told GZERO Media, a subsidiary of the Eurasia Group political risk consultancy.
While it’s Mr Netanyahu’s hope, there’s no guarantee that the Trump plan’s endorsement of expanding Israel’s borders will push him over the top in his race against former military chief Benny Gantz.
Previous Trump pre-election gestures — including recognising contested Jerusalem as Israel’s capital — didn’t deliver the boost the prime minister needed to secure a fifth term.
The concept of annexing land in the West Bank, where more than 400,000 settlers live among 2.6 million Palestinians, had been unthinkable for decades, because of its questionable legality and the international outcry it would provoke. But the idea has gained acceptance as the prospects for peace with the Palestinians dimmed.
Now, Israel must act immediately to annex all of the territory the US recognises as Israel’s, and not in phases as some have recommended, said lawmaker Naftali Bennett of the nationalist New Right party.
“What is postponed until after the election won’t happen,” Mr Bennett said.
Mr Gantz himself has endorsed the Trump plan, but in the past has opposed acting unilaterally on settlements.
Blue and White wants the election “to be about Netanyahu’s indictment and corruption and ability to perform as a prime minister who is sitting in trial”, said Yael Patir, Israel director for leftwing group J Street. “If it’s a referendum on the future of the territories, then it takes us away from that.”