Egypt’s population boom proves to be no boon
Egypt’s 100 millionth citizen was born last week, undoubtedly a happy occasion for one family, but a moment filled with foreboding for a country struggling to contain a population explosion. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has compared the elevated birth rate to terrorism as one of Egypt’s top national-security threats.
In the past year the government has scrambled to stem the birth rate with a new programme called “Two is Enough”. It is establishing family planning clinics throughout the country, where Egyptians can purchase heavily subsidised contraceptives. It is also sending volunteers on home visits to discourage couples from having large families. But many doctors and activists fear that this is too little, and comes too late to reverse the uptick in population growth that is exacerbating challenges in a country where one in three people live below the poverty line.
Central to the uptick in the birth rate is a failure of governance. When the US Agency for International Development ceased funding Egyptian family planning programmes in 2008, the birth rate per woman had dropped to 3.0 babies from 5.6 in 1976. Contraception use had risen 18.8% to 60.3% during that time. The US had spent US$376 million (about 12 trillion baht) on family planning initiatives over that period.
But since then governments in Cairo have largely ignored the issue, and birth rates have surged back to approximately 3.5 per woman, well above the Middle East and North Africa average of 2.8.
Doctors complain that the new “Two is Enough” programme is disorganised, lacking in a clear strategy to bring down birth rates. The financial resources deployed thus far have been a fraction of previous efforts; some family-planning clinics have reportedly run out of contraceptives. While clinics funded by the campaign provide some reproductive health education, sexual education remains taboo in Egyptian schools. This means many people have little practical knowledge of their contraception options.
Another failure is the lack of adequate services for Egypt’s most vulnerable — the poor and pensioners. Many Egyptians opt to have more children in the hope they will look after them as they age, a phenomenon common in countries with high levels of poverty and inadequate safety nets. While over 30 million Egyptians live in poverty, only 9.4 million receive means-tested cash transfers from the government’s welfare programmes. Economic reforms undertaken as part of a recently completed International Monetary Fund programme have cut subsidies in a number of areas, contributing to a spike in inflation that at one point exceeded 30%.
For newborns like the 100-millionth Egyptian, the outlook is grim. Inadequate assistance to the poor contributes to significant malnourishment among children. Half of those aged under five years suffer from anaemia, 29% have stunted growth. This, in turn, contributes to reduced productivity as adults, adding to Egypt’s longterm economic challenges.
The poor quality of public education in Egypt also undercuts the potential benefits that could come with a large new workforce. In the 2019 World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness report, Egyptian graduates ranked 133rd out of 141 countries in skills. The quality of vocational training was 129th out of 141. Although the constitution requires Egypt to spend at least 4% of GDP on education, governments have consistently missed this target by a substantial margin.
A burgeoning population exacerbates other problems. Take water scarcity. Despite Egypt’s limited supply — it depends almost exclusively on the Nile — there has been a systemic failure to adequately address water waste. From wasteful megaprojects draining the Nile to literally dumping waste in the river, Egyptian officials have consistently failed to prudently protect what is perhaps the country’s most vital natural resource.
In 2018, Egypt temporarily reduced the farming of rice, a water-intensive crop, only to expand cultivation the following year. The New Administrative Capital that Mr Sisi has set out to erect is projected to need 650,000 cubic metres of water per day when finished. Failure to quickly and dramatically improve water management practices in Egypt could be disastrous, and the risk is greater for the country’s rapid population growth.
In order to prevent a deterioration in living standards, some economists estimate Egypt’s GDP must grow at three times its rate of population growth. President Sisi himself acknowledged this, saying the economy needs to grow at least 7.5% a year. But growth is currently under 6%, and the non-oil and gas private sector is contracting. From convoluted regulations to unreliable contract enforcement, to anti-competitive practices by military-owned businesses, Egypt’s investors face an array of challenges that have stifled private sector activity.
In his latest book, The Political Economy of Reform in Egypt, Khalid Ikram, a former World Bank country director for Egypt, writes: “Many of the fundamental economic problems of Egypt have resulted not so much from a shortage of financial resources as from failures of governance.” As the country’s population continues to grow fast, the room for error is shrinking.