IN SYRIA AND LIBYA, TRUMP IS TORN OVER TWO WARS
Intensifying conflict forcing Trump to step in as strongmen of Russia, Turkey fight it out.
President Donald Trump has long sought to avoid confronting the leaders of Turkey and Russia — two foreign strongmen who are facing off in civil wars in Syria and Libya. But after an airstrike on Thursday that killed dozens of Turkish troops in northwest Syria, Mr Trump may be forced to pick a side.
The attack that could dramatically change the course of the Syrian war as fears grow of a direct conflict between Russia and Turkey, a Nato member. At least 33 Turkish soldiers were killed and more than 30 wounded. Turkish officials said the strike had been carried out by Syrian government forces, but Russian jets have been conducting most of the airstrikes in the area in recent weeks.
Nominal allies, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey have each thrown military forces and other support into two bloody conflicts that have spawned vast human suffering, have threatened to upend a fragile stability in the Middle East and may send hundreds of thousands of refugees streaming into Europe.
Despite international calls for more American involvement, Mr Trump has stood aside from significant intervention in either conflict — a decision consistent with his pledge to wind down the “endless wars” of the past two decades.
But State Department officials have made clear they view Russia as stirring the unrest, especially in Syria. Turkish leaders, well aware that their nation is viewed with distrust by many in Congress and within the Nato alliance, are seeking to use both conflicts to show the United States that they should put aside a year of strained diplomacy and unite against a common adversary: Moscow.
Details of Thursday’s attack remained murky, and it was not certain whether Russia or its allies in the Syrian air force carried out the strike in the city of Idlib, now the epicentre of the Syria crisis. Either way, US and Turkish officials maintain that Russia is integral to almost every part of the Syrian government’s military.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on Tuesday blamed Russia for blocking humanitarian aid to Idlib and said President Bashar Assad of Syria had started a “brutal new aggression there, cynically backed by Moscow and Tehran.”
Sen Lindsey Graham, a close Trump ally, called on Thursday for establishing a no-fly zone over Idlib “to save thousands of innocent men, women and children from a horrible death.”
But experts note that Mr Trump may have divided feelings. Jeffrey Edmonds, who handled Russia issues on the National Security Council under Mr Trump and also during the Obama administration, said that “there is definitely a tension” as Mr Trump has seemed drawn to both presidents. “He’s so pro-Russia most of the time that Putin is putting him in a strange position visà-vis Turkey,” Mr Edmonds said.
This month, Volkan Bozkir, the chairman of the Turkish Parliament’s foreign affairs committee, said his country recognised that it faced “a crucial moment in our relations with the United States.” He singled out the conflicts in Libya and Syria as situations where Turkey and the
United States “need each other.”
“The US must be strong, and Turkey must be strong, to overcome all of these events,” Bozkir told journalists in Washington on Feb 12.
Russia defends what it describes as Assad’s military campaign against terrorists and claims that the Syrian president cannot be persuaded to protect civilians caught in the crossfire.
“In reality in Syria, all of the military system is produced by Russia,” Mr
Bozkir said. “They produced everything. It is obvious that if there is a plane use, or a missile use, or a bomb attack is occurring, it can’t be done without the knowledge of the Russians.”
Over the last few months, and faced with the mass of refugees at its border, Turkey has pushed thousands of troops and set up observation posts in Idlib as part of an agreement with Russia and Iran to reduce violence in Syria.
A senior Trump administration official said Russia is most likely the only power that could persuade Mr Assad to back off, both in Idlib and in the northwestern city of Aleppo, another strategic prize in the Syrian war.
So far, that has not happened, and James F Jeffrey, the State Department’s special envoy on Syria and the Islamic State, said it was unclear if Russia was powerless to curb Mr Assad or simply chose not to.
Regardless, Jeffrey told reporters on Feb 5, “Russia is not being helpful.”
Turkey and Russia have also taken opposing sides in Libya, where a former Libyan army general, Khalifa Haftar, and his forces are challenging the UN-backed government for control.
Russia has sided with Gen Haftar, a dual Libyan-American citizen and former CIA asset who is accused of torture.
Gen Haftar also has the support of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, all allies of the United States. The UAE is a major supplier of arms and fighter jets for Gen Haftar.
But Moscow, seeking to expand its influence in the Middle East and Africa, has also deployed weapons and as many as 1,400 mercenaries with the Russian private security firm Wagner Group to assist Haftar, and has helped his Libyan Nation Army set up a rival government, including by printing currency.
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Mr Trump has stood aside from significant intervention in either conflict — consistent with his pledge to wind down the ‘endless wars’ of the past two decades.