US-TALIBAN DEAL BRINGS SHAKY HOPE FOR PEACE
US hopes to withdraw troops in return for assurance on terrorist havens.
The US was ready to take its biggest step toward ending the two-decade war in Afghanistan yesterday with the signing of a peace deal with the Taliban, the fundamentalist Islamic group ousted by American forces after the Sept 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The accord to be signed in Qatar rests on a simple exchange: The US will start withdrawing some of its 13,000 troops in the country as long as the Taliban keeps areas it controls from becoming terrorist havens. The Taliban must also begin talks with negotiators from the Afghan government, opposition and civil society for a lasting cease-fire and, the US hopes, an eventual political deal.
It’s an enormous gamble borne of President Donald Trump’s desire to end what he called “endless wars”, and bring American troops home. A conflict that started over the Taliban’s refusal to hand over al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden has since become America’s longest conflict, taking the lives of more than 2,400 US soldiers and costing taxpayers an estimated US$900 billion (28 trillion baht).
The accord is being greeted with a mix of hope and fear by Afghans exhausted by the endless war but fearful that the Taliban will recapture control and reimpose draconian rule that limits freedom and bars women from education and public life.
Despite the US efforts, the Taliban is now at its strongest since being forced from power a generation ago. It contests or controls about half the country, while opium production is soaring and civilian casualties are near their highest since data started being tracked a decade ago.
The United Nations estimates that more than 100,000 Afghans have been wounded or killed in the past 10 years alone. Even as Taliban and US-backed Afghan forces have fought to a stalemate, Islamic State terrorists gained a foothold in the country long known as the “graveyard of empires”.
“Everyone is tired of war,” said Masood Mahfuz, 42, whose brother was killed in a Taliban bombing three years ago. “We are thirsty for peace. The only way is to make peace with the Taliban and forget the past.”
US military commanders long ago assessed that the war would be unwinnable absent the presence of tens of thousands of more troops and a broad political accord. Mr Trump, who railed against the Afghan war before becoming a presidential candidate, authorised peace talks overseen by Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad to start in September 2018.
“This is the best chance yet I’ve seen in 15 years to move the peace process forward,” said Andrew Wilder, the vice-president for Asia Programmes at the US Institute of Peace who spent more than 10 years overseeing humanitarian programmes in Afghanistan and Pakistan.
But the deal being signed — after a seven-day reduction in violence by both sides — raises hard questions about whether the US departure will really lead to Taliban-Afghan talks, what the future of women’s rights will be and whether the country can move on from decades of conflict.
The agreement comes as the Afghan government is in turmoil. The results of the country’s September election, announced this month, are disputed. President Ashraf Ghani claimed victory while his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, rejected the results as hopelessly flawed.
Yet, under pressure from the US, Mr Ghani agreed to postpone his inauguration as the signing goes ahead.
The next milestone is supposed to be talks in Oslo, perhaps as early as mid-March, where the Taliban and Afghan government negotiators are to sit down across the table from each other. But the Taliban have repeatedly refused to talk to Mr Ghani’s government, calling it a US puppet. And Afghan leaders, divided themselves, refuse to recognise the Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.
So while the US-Taliban negotiations may have been fraught so far, the hardest part lies ahead.
For ordinary Afghan citizens, the doubts linger: Have the talks so far merely been a ruse by the Taliban, which will move to expand its authority once the Americans depart? Why would the fundamentalist group stop fighting now, with the Afghan government under such pressure? The distrust may be too deep to bridge.
“A peace deal with the Taliban is a waste of time,” said Said Khaleda Ahmadi, 29, who works in the government. “They must be killed and rooted out wherever they are.”
Sceptics inside Afghanistan argue that restrictions on women remain severe in areas controlled by the Taliban. Women are whipped for speaking to male strangers and girls, in many cases, still can’t go to school. Underage girls are married off to much older men. “First, the US tells us ‘we are behind you’ but on the other hand they say ‘get united and carry the burden on your own shoulders,’” said Mahboba Saraj, a board member of Kabul-based Afghan Women’s Network. “We don’t know what they mean by saying that. Will they leave us behind?”
The US has made clear its priorities focus on counter-terrorism. Pressed at a briefing on Feb 25, Secretary of State Michael Pompeo stressed that any political deal must be worked out by Afghan negotiators, with the US in an observer role. He declined to say how the US might seek to protect the rights of women and other vulnerable groups.
“The US effort is to let the Afghans lead this process, and they’ll come up with a resolution that is, I’m sure, uniquely theirs, just like every nation across the world does,” Mr Pompeo said.