Biden’s victory in Michigan ‘offers hope’
A broader Democratic coalition than the party mobilised in 2016 takes shape. By Trip Gabriel
Joe Biden didn’t just win the Michigan primary last week. The turnout and demographic patterns of voters, from African Americans in Detroit to affluent suburbanites to working-class white voters in rural areas, provided evidence of a broader Democratic coalition than the party mobilised in 2016, a powerful warning shot to the Trump campaign.
In that last general election, Hillary Clinton struggled with white voters and independents, and underperformed with black voters compared with Barack Obama in 2012 and 2008. To the surprise of both political parties, Donald Trump carried the state by 10,700 votes, the first time a Republican had won Michigan in 28 years.
What stands out about Mr Biden’s victory on Tuesday is that he performed well not only among his bedrock supporters, black voters, but also drew solid backing from other key demographic groups — including college-educated white women, moderates and those over 45 — in a primary that shattered Democratic turnout records by more than 30%.
“The massive high turnout is bad news in Michigan for the Trump campaign,” said Richard Czuba, a non-partisan pollster who has surveyed the state for more than three decades. “Everybody is motivated to vote. And in a state like Michigan, when you have a record turnout coming — and I think we do in November — that is a huge benefit to the Democratic nominee. There just aren’t enough Republicans in Michigan.”
Because Michigan was the first Obama-to-Trump state to vote in the presidential primary, an erstwhile brick in what Democrats once complacently called their Blue Wall, both parties pounced on Tuesday’s results for signposts pointing to November.
The Trump campaign saw weaknesses for a Biden candidacy in the general election, specifically his problem appealing to voters under 45. “The math works very well for the president,” said Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for the Trump campaign.
Independent analysts like Mr Czuba, however, said that while it was true that motivation to vote was elevated for both parties, high turnout in Michigan historically favours Democrats.
Mr Trump’s surprise victory in Michigan was his narrowest win in the three Rust Belt states he pried from Democrats in 2016, a group that also included Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Perhaps Democrats’ best hope for winning the White House — and Republicans’ best line of defence — is through these same states in the industrial Midwest.
Polling and the 2018 midterm trends suggest Michigan is the most likely of the three to swing back to Democrats this year. If Mr Biden becomes the nominee, he will probably be especially well positioned to appeal to black voters, to suburbanites abandoning the Republican Party and to enough rural white voters to nick the president’s margins in what analysts call “outstate” Michigan.
“With the perception of a moderate ticket, the Dems are going to turn the industrial Midwest back blue,” said Greg McNeilly, a Republican consultant in Grand Rapids, who added that Mr Biden’s pick for running mate would be critically important to his chances in Michigan.
In scores of rural counties on Tuesday, Mr Biden beat Bernie Sanders by significantly larger totals than Mr Sanders earned when he carried the same counties in the Democratic primary four years ago. The state’s rural enclaves are dominated by white voters without college degrees, the most loyal members of the Trump base. Even if most of them stick with the president, small gains by Democrats could make a difference in a closely fought statewide election.
“It suggests that Biden has a chance to stop the bleeding there,” said Brandon Dillon, a former chair of the Michigan Democratic Party.
Then there are the suburbs, the key to Democratic gains nationwide in 2018. Largely thanks to a swing by suburbanites in affluent Oakland County outside Detroit — the boyhood home of the 2012 Republican presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, whose father was governor of Michigan — Democrats rolled up large victories in 2018. They included the election of Gov Gretchen Whitmer and two congresswomen who flipped Republican seats, Haley Stevens and Elissa Slotkin.
Turnout in the Democratic primary Tuesday was up 40% in suburban counties, and 44% specifically in Oakland County, the second-most populous county in the state after Detroit’s Wayne County.
“The districts that flipped from Republican to Democrat were largely located in large fast-growing suburban counties,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “So Republicans are going to face the same challenge in 2020 that they faced in 2018 — how to be competitive in those larger suburban counties that contain large numbers of college educated women.”
On Tuesday, Mr Biden pulled 66,000 votes out of Macomb County, surpassing Mr Sanders’ 44,000. Mr Trump received 78,000 votes there in the Republican primary.
Rep Andy Levin, the Democrat who represents Macomb County, predicted it would return to the Democrats in November. “Donald Trump now has a record, and his record is not growing good jobs in Macomb County,’’ he said, pointing to “a mini recession in manufacturing” in his district. A former labour organiser, Mr Levin predicted, “You’ll be back in Macomb writing the obituary for Donald Trump’s presidency after Nov 3.”