Commentary: End of 2nd wave up to public

Is a second wave of coronavirus outbreak inevitable after the government eases up further on lockdown measures? The question seems to be on everybody’s mind as the cabinet is prepared to discuss whether more businesses including shopping malls, beauty salons and foot massage spas will be allowed to reopen this Friday.

Photos showing overcrowded BTS and MRT stations, especially during morning rush hours, do not bode well for the hopes of a relative return to normal.

The government will be hard pressed to find the right balance between restarting the deflated economy and suppressing a recurrence of the virus.

Challenges abound but the government should not forget that the key remains to keeping people apart in public.

If we keep that in mind, it should not be a problem to allow all businesses to resume except those demanding that people stay together in closed-off spaces such as movie theatres and boxing arenas.

After all, the problem is not that shops, restaurants, gyms or beauty salons will be in service. The problem is whether these places allow crowds to form, and therefore possibly facilitate the spread of the disease.

In this case, the social-distancing measures that the authorities have issued should suffice. These include thermal screening before entry, hand sanitisation, proper distancing within the premise and regular cleaning.

It’s true that if most businesses are allowed to reopen, authorities will not be able to keep an eye on them. A lapse in Covid-19 standards could occur at any of the ten thousand spots, which could lead to new infections.

But that is exactly why business operators and patrons must be vigilant and not drop their guard. It’s in their own self-interest to follow instructions and not become complacent.

New cases in Thailand have been consistently low, with daily infections staying in the single-digit range for more than two weeks, except for a single day on May 4.

Calls have been loud for the government to relax its lockdown measures and allow people to resume making a living.

Millions have been suffocated by the effects of Covid-19. People have lost their businesses and jobs. Worse, there seems to be little hope as to when the hardship will end. With no cure or vaccine in sight, there is no knowing when life will return to “normal”, if at all.

People who have sheltered in place for more than a month are certainly eager to get out and savour the freedom to move, shop or eat as they used to.

On the other hand, doctors and health authorities keep reminding the expectant public not to get carried away as a second wave of infections could occur at any time, and when it does it is usually more brutal.

Prospects from countries that are ahead of us both in terms of rates of infection and recovery are not bright.

South Korea reported a spike in infections a few days ago, as did Germany and China.

There is no doubt that Thailand stands at a critical juncture. If distancing is the main thing in preventing the disease from recurring, the government must focus its effort there and let go of unnecessary restrictions.

Has the curfew been proven to work in preventing people from gathering? If not, it’s best to ditch the measure.

Meanwhile, Bangkok has the highest population density in the country at about 5,294 people per square kilometre. That is about five people per square metre. Space is precious in the city. Distancing therefore can become an unaffordable luxury if not managed well.

The high population number also means it could be difficult for mass-transport operators to increase the number of trains, buses or boats to accommodate that many passengers especially during rush hours.

Instead of keeping business closed and barring people from going out, the government could put more effort into keeping people, especially white-collar workers, at home. While the Centre for the Covid-19 Situation Administration has urged the private sector to continue the work-from-home measures, not all of them comply.

But this measure, plus a flexible hours approach, could go a long way in keeping people from crowding into mass-transit systems or flocking to restaurants. Working from home can also help ease traffic woes and save on energy. Businesses that do not want to comply may be more inclined to do so if the government offers them incentives.

As the cabinet is expected to relax many lockdown restrictions, more thought must be given to two things: how to keep people home who can afford to and how to keep people apart in public.

A second-wave outbreak of Covid-19 could be on the horizon if we fail to observe these requirements, and not because we reopen businesses.

Atiya Achakulwisut is a Bangkok Post columnist.