AGGRESSIVE CHINA WEIGHS HOW FAR TO PUSH US
Beijing tries to respond without harming the economy or inviting isolation.
Two weeks ago, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, pleaded with the United States to step back from the brink and find ways to work together. Just days later, he complained to his Russian counterpart that the United States had “lost its mind, morals and credibility”. The question now is what China can do about it. The Trump administration’s broad assault on China has left its leadership with few options that would not threaten a complete breach in relations. If that happened, it could leave Beijing even more isolated at a time when China is also clashing with India, Britain, Canada, Australia and many other countries. It could also hurt the Chinese economy when it is already reeling from the coronavirus pandemic and the global fallout.
The order on Tuesday to close the Chinese Consulate in Houston was only the latest action by the US that has infuriated officials in China. In a matter of weeks, Beijing has endured a stepped-up campaign against its 5G wireless technology, sanctions against officials overseeing Hong Kong and the largely Muslim region of Xinjiang, and now accusations that China has sent soldiers under cover to steal commercial, military and even medical secrets.
On Friday China retaliated by ordering the closure of the US consulate in the southwestern city of Chengdu, ramping up tensions. The furore is inflaming anti-American sentiment in China and emboldening more hawkish voices. Nationalists called for China to go further than a measured tit-for-tat response and even consider shutting down the American Consulate in Hong Kong.
Behind the scenes, senior Chinese officials seem to have little desire to escalate the tensions even further, concerned that any moves could play into President Donald Trump’s hands as he mounts his re-election campaign. A highly visible showdown with China could distract Americans from Mr Trump’s botched response to the pandemic and allow him to campaign as a leader who is defending his country against a foreign power. “This is a classic game, to find an external distraction and rouse the people behind the president,” said Lau Siu-kai, a senior Beijing adviser on Hong Kong issues.
At the same time, Beijing cannot afford to appear weak in the face of the barrage of attacks from the United States. A rising sense of national pride, instilled by the country’s schools and amplified by state media, demands that Chinese leaders stand strong when challenged from abroad. “China needs to protect its own honour and sovereignty,” said Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai.
Wang Wenbin, the foreign ministry’s spokesman, said Chinese officials were acutely aware of their dilemma. “We are not interested in interfering in the US election; we also hope the US side will not play the China card in the election,” he said.
Rising tensions with Washington have laid bare divisions in Beijing over how to respond to a confrontation that has become even broader and more aggressive than Chinese officials expected only weeks ago.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, speaking on Thursday at the Richard Nixon Presidential Library in California, said the US would persist in challenging China around the globe. He did not mention any issues of common interest or grounds for constructive engagement.
“General Secretary Xi Jinping is a true believer in a bankrupt totalitarian ideology,” Pompeo said, referring to the Chinese leader. He added, “I call on every leader of every nation to start by doing what America has done — to simply insist on reciprocity, to insist on transparency, and on accountability from the Chinese Communist Party.”
On one side are officials in the security services and the military who oppose any conciliatory stance that might be interpreted by the US as weakness. Other officials, generally those focused on the economy, have sought a more measured response to the US actions — keeping the trade truce intact, for example.
China’s leader, Xi Jinping, remains the ultimate arbiter of the policy debate in Beijing, but has not spoken out on the deterioration in relations.
The tough policies and tougher rhetoric from Washington indicate the US, not China, is setting the ever more confrontational tone in the bilateral relationship.
“I think originally you could have faulted the Chinese for much of the imbalance,” said Orville Schell, director of the Center on US-China Relations at the Asia Society, “but now the US doesn’t seem as ardent about leaving the door open for remedy, as it is arching its back against China.”