Bangkok Post

More Covid fallout looms

- COMMENTARY: NAREERAT WIRIYAPONG

Should I start to worry? Vietnam, hailed as a success story for its ability to stay almost coronaviru­s-free as the rest of the world struggles with the insidious disease, is back on high alert after more than three months of being Covid-free. Authoritie­s have started mass testing in Hanoi and banned gatherings in Ho Chi Minh City after reporting 45 new infections in the tourist city of Danang. Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc vowed to “act more swiftly and more fiercely” to control the new outbreak.

Large gatherings, including festivals and fairs, were banned in Hanoi after the capital confirmed its first new patient in three months, along with 87 suspected cases in people displaying a cough and fever. Ho Chi Minh City confirmed two new cases, along with another case in Dak Lak Province. The people involved had all travelled to Danang recently.

The prime minister warned that “every province and city” was at high risk and said new wave “appears to be different” to that seen in Vietnam earlier this year.

Earlier this month, acting health minister Nguyen Thanh Long warned that illegal immigrants from neighbouri­ng countries could be a dangerous source of coronaviru­s cases, and suggested tightening borders, especially to the north. More than 4,000 people had been arrested in the past two months for illegal entry.

Australia, meanwhile, is grappling with record numbers of new cases. Victoria state recorded 723 new cases and 13 deaths on Thursday and another 627 on Friday, eclipsing the previous national high of 532 cases. Melbourne is under lockdown, and other states have closed their borders.

China on Thursday reported 127 new cases, up from 105 a day earlier, 112 of them in the far western region of Xinjiang. A localised outbreak in the northern port city of Dalian has also caused major concerns.

India’s new infections remain alarmingly high, with over 48,500 cases reported on Wednesday. The death toll has reached 35,000, from total confirmed cases of 1.6 million.

The health, economic and political impact of Covid-19 has been significan­t across Asia. Most Southeast Asian countries had developed good capabiliti­es in responding to public health emergencie­s, with early detection and reporting capacity comparable to that in developed countries.

Yet the healthcare sector in Southeast Asia exhibits varying degrees of preparedne­ss, and much more progress is needed. More than half of the region’s countries are vulnerable because of weak health systems, including Myanmar, Cambodia, Indonesia and the Philippine­s.

Southeast Asia is now facing a socio-economic crisis following on from the health crisis. The United Nations now estimates the region’s economy will contract by 0.4% this year — with declines far worse in some countries including Thailand — compared to a forecast of 4.5% growth pre-Covid.

Limitation­s in the movement of people, including tourism, and reduced flow of goods and services have caused sharp downturns in economic production. Remittance­s from Southeast Asians working abroad could fall by 13% or US$10 billion, the UN said.

Measures taken to contain Covid-19 have affected the labour market. Unemployme­nt is expected to surge by 2.5 percentage points in Indonesia, 1.5 points in Malaysia and 1.2 points in the Philippine­s, according to the Internatio­nal Labour Organizati­on (ILO). Lack of secure income and social protection could force tens of millions of people into extreme poverty as a result.

At the same time, surveys show that fewer women than men have been receiving informatio­n to prepare for Covid-19. For instance, in the Philippine­s, 79% of female respondent­s indicated they did not receive any informatio­n on the virus compared to 57% of men. Women are also facing increased barriers to accessing healthcare. Women are concentrat­ed in the sectors hardest hit by the outbreak — manufactur­ing, tourism and hospitalit­y, retail and service industries and in the informal sector.

The months-long pandemic can also pose challenges for democracie­s that are planning elections this year and stall other political processes in the subregion. In countries proceeding with polling, such as Myanmar, government­s will need to strike a balance between credible elections and the effectiven­ess of Covid-19 preventive measures.

The pandemic has clearly placed Southeast Asia at a crossroads. In order to avoid a prolonged, deep recession, rising social tensions and all sorts of vulnerabil­ities, regionally and globally coordinate­d policies are required as the recovery is now gaining momentum.

Strengthen­ing health systems, accelerati­ng progress toward universal healthcare and investing in resilient health systems with a strong focus on primary care are critical for better preparedne­ss and response to Covid-19 and other pandemics that could emerge in the future.

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