Guaido sidelined from House
A new Venezuelan parliament was to be sworn in yesterday, with the party of President Nicolas Maduro now in almost complete control and the main thorn in his side, Western-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido, out in the political cold.
Venezuelans have lived almost two years with both men laying claim to the presidency, but with Mr Maduro labelled a dictator and subject to Western sanctions and Mr Guaido recognised as the country’s legitimate leader by the United States and more than 50 other nations.
In a move some criticised as a strategic error, the opposition led by Mr Guaido boycotted the Dec 6 legislative elections that returned a large majority for Mr Maduro’s party. The National
Assembly formerly enjoyed an opposition majority.
This meant Mr Guaido will be out of his job as National Assembly speaker, losing the limited institutional legitimacy he had, and leaving foreign governments backing his claim to the presidency in a difficult position.
“I do not think that this duality [of power] will continue for much longer,” Benigno Alarcon, director of the Centre of Politics and Government at Venezuela’s Andres Bello Catholic University, said.
Mr Maduro, he said, “has control of the country through force” and a firm grip all state institutions.
This means, among other things, he could use Covid-19 restrictions on movement to ban any possible protests against his rule.
At the same time, Mr Guaido is faced with increasingly feeble opposition mobilisation.
A referendum-style consultation called by Mr Guaido and held over five days in December for people to condemn the Dec 6 vote and Mr Maduro with it, failed to muster the large numbers of opposition supporters that participated in the protests of 2019.
“It is very likely that... Guaido will remain an opposition leader in exile,” said Rafael Alvarez, analyst at the firm Iuriscorp.
On Jan 23, 2019, Mr Guaido proclaimed himself interim president before a large crowd after the thenopposition controlled parliament branded Mr Maduro a “usurper” fraudulently reelected in May 2018.
This bold step marked a turning point in the political crisis in recessionhit Venezuela.
It unleashed fresh protests against Mr Maduro, and Mr Guaido’s popularity soared to around 80%, according to polling firms such as Datanalisis.
But the president refused to cede, and the standoff continues to this day.
In December, the opposition-led National Assembly passed a decree allowing itself to continue functioning in parallel with the new Maduromajority chamber until fresh elections are held this year.