‘10,000 Covid cases a day’

Omicron to spur new record by weekend

The number of daily new Covid-19 cases is expected to top 10,000 a day in the next three days as a result of the spike in Omicron infections and could be three times as high by the end of January, a health expert said.

A fifth wave of the pandemic has begun in Thailand earlier than expected, with cases predicted to surge dramatically this month unless precautions are taken, according to the Department of Medical Services (DMS).

Prasit Watanapa, dean of Mahidol University’s Faculty of Medicine, said that even though Omicron does not cause severe symptoms, it is highly transmissible and when case numbers are high, the proportion of severe cases that require hospitalisation will also be high.

‘’The public has been urged not to panic but people should not lower their guard. In the next three to four days, I believe we will see cases rise to more than 10,000 a day. The number will surge to 20,000 to 30,000 by the end of this month,” Dr Prasit said.

Dr Somsak Akkasilp, the DMS’s director-general, said the recent surge marks the beginning of a new wave in Thailand, with the curve of infections also rising.

The new wave arrived five days earlier than an initial prediction claiming new daily cases would peak on Jan 10, he said, citing a prediction from Sunt Srianthumrong, a special lecturer on environmental management with the National Institute of Development Administration (Nida).

In addition to the 3,899 new cases logged yesterday, 3,000 more cases were detected through antigen testing, totalling 7,000 cases for the day, Dr Somsak said.

“The Omicron variant is far more transmissible than Delta, but it is less severe,” he said.

Common symptoms linked to the Omicron variant are coughing (54% of patients), sore throat (39%) and fever (29%), Dr Somsak said, adding these symptoms are similar to the flu and it is hard to distinguish between them.

In light of this, those who develop flu-like symptoms should isolate themselves from others, he said, adding that temperature checks before entering shopping malls or other premises may not be able to detect the new strain.

It is essential everyone continue to follow precautions such as wearing masks and maintaining physical distancing, he said.

Dr Somsak said home isolation and community isolation will be the main approach for looking after patients while the use of hospitels (hotels-cumhospitals) will be reduced due to the high cost.

Mr Sunt posted on Facebook that the new wave of Omicron infections began with a rise in infections in Phuket, Chiang Mai, Ubon Ratchathani, Khon Kaen and Chon Buri over the past six days.

“It has been confirmed that the fifth wave of Omicron has begun, with graphs rising vertically. It is certain this is Omicron, not a repeat of Delta,” he posted.

“What must be done immediately is to protect Bangkok, slow down the impact of the new wave and keep it as small as possible, and buy as much time as possible. If Bangkok is beaten, the wave will strike other provinces rapidly. The curve in Bangkok tends to rise and the capital is expected to feel the impact soon unless everyone joins forces,” Mr Sunt posted.

“As for Phuket, Chiang Mai and Khon Kaen, case numbers are rising rapidly but remain under control, better than in South Africa and Europe.

“As for Ubon Ratchathani and Chon Buri, new cases in these two provinces will double every four days. The situation will worsen unless action is taken. Transmissions will also spread from Chon Buri to Bangkok soon.”

He also noted that even though Omicron’s fatality rate is low at 0.10.3%, compared to other strains, if 10 million people get infected, between 10,000 and 30,000 deaths are expected as a result.

On a more positive note, while the new wave will be faster than any previous wave, if it is well controlled, the spike in infections will go down quickly, he said.