K-Research puts 2022 income at 37% of pre-pandemic level

Kasikorn Research Center (K-Research) forecasts Thailand’s tourism income this year would be 37% of the pre-pandemic level, attributable to both local and foreign travellers in the second half of this year.

K-Research estimates tourism receipts from both inbound and domestic tourism in 2022 will rise to 1.1 trillion baht or around 37% of the 3 trillion baht in total tourism income generated prior to the pandemic breaking out in 2019, said K-Research assistant managing director Kevalin Wangpichayasuk.

The research centre has revised up

its projection of foreign tourist arrivals in 2022 from 4 million earlier to 7.2 million after the number has been rising since the second quarter in line with the government’s relaxation of cross-border travel restrictions.

The government is scheduled to halt Thailand Pass registration and compulsory Covid-19 insurance requirements for all people arriving in Thailand from July 1, which would also support the country’s tourism sector in the second half, Ms Kevalin added.

For the first five months of this year, foreign arrivals stood at 1.31 million, significantly increasing from 497,693 at the end of March.

At the same time, local tourism has also improved in line with the country’s economic rebound and the government’s domestic tourism scheme.

Another deputy managing director at K-Research, Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, said the tourism sector would be the key engine supporting economic recovery for this year.

The research house has revised up its 2022 GDP growth rate from an earlier projection of 2.5% to 2.9%.

In the second half, the GDP growth rate would be better on a quarter-toquarter basis.

Improving domestic consumption would be another key factor bolstering the Thai economy this year. K-Research has revised upward the domestic consumption growth rate from 1.7% previously to 2.9% in line with better economic activities.

However, the rising inflation rate would be a core risk factor weakening consumer purchasing power.

The research centre assesses the headline inflation rate would peak at 7.4% in the third quarter before falling gradually but still standing at a high level.

Therefore, headline inflation throughout this year is expected to be 6%, rising from the previous forecast at 4.5%.

“Despite the inflation rate being projected at 6% this year, the inflation level of each person’s feeling is different. Lower-income earners, whose inflation basket weight is in food and energy prices mainly, may feel inflation is as high as 10%,” Ms Nattaporn said.

At the same time, increasing domestic energy prices and higher cost passthrough have broadened to a wider range of products.

‘‘ The tourism sector would be the key engine supporting economic recovery for this year. NATTAPORN TRIRATANASIRIKUL Deputy managing director, K-Research