Which team will win the World Cup?
Who’s going to win the World Cup? To get an answer, you could seek the opinion of coaches, players, pundits or fans.
Or you could ask the people who have a great financial stake in the outcome: bookmakers.
With every team having played one game, the most likely team to win the World Cup this year is, as almost every year, Brazil, according to oddsmakers around the world.
But it is far from a sure thing. Brazil’s odds are roughly 3-1, meaning at best they have about a 25 percent chance of lifting the trophy at this point.
Also considered strong contenders are France (6-1) and England and Spain (both 7-1).
The next leading contenders are, somewhat surprisingly, Argentina at 8-1, even though they lost their opening game to Saudi Arabia.
The consensus seems to be that they will bounce back against Mexico and Poland and make it to the knockout rounds.
On the other hand, Argentina were originally the second favourites at 5-1, so they certainly have slipped.
As you might have noticed, the favourites are the usual suspects.
The truth is, long shots just don’t win the World Cup very often.
Oh, they sometimes make a surprise run to the semi-finals (South Korea in 2002) or even the final (Croatia in 2018) but they just don’t win it.
So if you truly believe in, say, the United States (150-1) or even Costa Rica (as much as 3,000-1 after losing to Spain 7-0), you could be richly rewarded if they defy the odds come the final on Dec 18.
There are odds available on the individual awards as well, giving a clue as to who bettors and bookies think will perform well the rest of the way at the tournament.
Before the World Cup began, who else but Lionel Messi (7-1) was the favourite for the Golden Ball as player of the tournament, an award he won eight years ago.
But after Argentina’s stutter, he has slipped behind Kylian Mbappe of France (6-1). Mbappe scored a goal in his team’s 4-1 win over Australia in their Qatar 2022 opener.
That prize almost always goes to a player on a successful team, but not necessarily the winning one.
The last two Golden Balls went to players on the runners-up (Luka Modric of Croatia and Messi), and the winner before that, Diego Forlan of Uruguay, made only the semi-finals.
The final game in the opening round of matches on Thursday significantly shook up the betting for the Golden Boot for the top goalscorer of the tournament.
Richarlíson of Brazil had been a 25-1 shot before the tournament started, but his two goals against Serbia shot him to favourite at 8-1.
The other top contenders are Mbappe (9-1, with one goal so far), Olivier Giroud of France (11-1, two goals) and Messi (13-1, one goal).