When will PM go to the polls?
Opposition, observers say Prayut may try to hang on as party of choice, United Thai Nation, ‘not ready’ for election battle, writes Aekarach Sattaburuth
The upcoming general election is scheduled to take place on May 7 next year, provided the House of Representatives completes its term on March 23. With less than 100 days to go before that key date and Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s decision to carry on in politics, key opposition figures and political analysts expect him to dissolve the House shortly before its four-year term ends.
Deputy Pheu Thai leader Sutin Klungsang said Gen Prayut, who has the power to dissolve the House, is likely to wait until the time is right — that is, when his approval rating is high.
But the government’s popularity is in decline and it will be really tough for the government to win, he said. Moreover, the United Thai Nation (UTN) Party that Gen Prayut decided to join is not ready to compete in the polls, according to Mr Sutin.
SLOW OFF THE MARK
After keeping people guessing as to what party he would work with, Gen Prayut confirmed last Friday that he would join the UTN, also known as Ruam Thai Sang Chart, and said he was willing to be the party’s prime ministerial candidate.
“You can see the party isn’t quite ready, so dissolving the House early won’t be to their advantage. I think the government will stay as long as it can and spend the remaining period increasing its popularity and getting things in order,” said Mr Sutin.
“I think it will happen just shortly before the House’s term ends,” he added. Mr Mr Sutin is also an MP for Maha Sarakham.
The government will not rush things because two election laws are pending royal endorsement. It will start seriously considering the issue after the laws come into force.
On Gen Prayut’s chance of being reelected as prime minister, he said that depends on the number of seats the UTN, led by Pirapan Salirathavibhaga who was recently appointed the prime minister’s secretary, wins.
“It won’t be easy. It’s really hard to go up against big or long-established parties,” said the Pheu Thai veteran.
Move Forward Party (MFP) secretary-general Thawatchai Tulathon said a House dissolution can be expected any time once the two organic laws on elections take effect.
The opposition MP echoed Mr Sutin’s opinions that Gen Prayut and the party that supports him are not ready for an election battle and it is likely the premier will wait until March next year to call a snap election.
“I think the government will try to capitalise on its incumbency to shore up its popularity,” he said.
Gen Prayut will need a miracle to win the election and return to power because the UTN is not popular enough to win big, and as a matter of fact its candidates are relying on popularity to win, said the MFP politician.
Several MPs are staying put with the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) because they do not need Gen Prayut to win and may even consider the prime minister a liability, he said.
“He’s not popular. People want changes. This is the problem of the UTN,” he said.
The UTN’s strategy is likely to bring together political allies including the PPRP and military-appointed senators to vote for Gen Prayut who has about two years left until his eight-year term limit expires, he said.
If the UTN and the PPRP fail to form a government and neither Gen Prayut nor PPRP leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon are elected as prime minister, Gen Prawit will assume the “manager” role striking deals among potential coalition partners, he added.
HIGH STAKES
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political scientist at Rangsit University, said Gen Prayut is likely to dissolve the House shortly before its term ends and will fully mobilise resources at his disposal to win over the public.
Defections of MPs should be expected from now on and there is no need to be alarmed. The politicians have party membership rules to comply with and the sooner they defect, the safer they’ll be, he said.
On Gen Prayut’s chance of being re-elected, the academic said the UTN needs good policy platforms to attract voters and win a good number of seats to secure support from potential partners.
The ruling PPRP, which backed Gen Prayut as the prime minister in the previous election, captured more than 100 seats and it remains to be seen if the UTN can grab as many as 25 seats to qualify to nominate someone as prime minister.
Under the law, a party is required to win 25 seats or more at the polls to nominate a prime minister.
Stakes are high for Gen Prayut at the election and the PPRP, which supports Gen Prawit as its prime ministerial candidate, may not be willing to open the way for Gen Prayut if the UTN wins fewer seats, said the academic.
“Gen Prayut will face more conditions,” he said.
Mr Wanwichit said the Bhumjaithai Party will be a key party in the government’s formation and it may prefer working with the PPRP more than the UTN.
He said the UTN may face an image problem as the public perceives it as associated with the now-defunct People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) which spearheaded street demonstrations against the Yingluck Shinawatra government in late 2013, culminating in the 2014 coup.
The academic did not rule out a possibility that the PPRP may join hands with the opposition Pheu Thai Party.
Meanwhile, a source in the ruling PPRP said it is hard to predict Gen Prayut’s future after he walked away from the PPRP to contest the election under the UTN’s banner.
The prime minister had a better chance with the PPRP, according to the source. “The UTN is getting things in order and so far we can’t see its strategy and predict how many seats it will win. Gen Prayut has his own support base, but he has many political rivals too,” said the source.
As things stand now, Gen Prayut must secure support from the Bhumjaithai Party to return to the post.
On the possibility of a House dissolution, there are two scenarios that usually lead to it. One is when there is a serious conflict between the executive and legislative branches and the other is when a key bill fails to clear the House, he said.
Currently there are no signs of these two trigger points, so the House is expected to function until March and the government will spend the remaining months speeding up work.
When asked about the frequent collapse of House meetings due to a lack of quorum, the source said it was a tactic to make the House look bad.