THE ROAD AHEAD

Phuket has long been a magnet for expatriates seeking paradise. More recently, though, a new wave has washed ashore – Russians seeking refuge from the war in Ukraine. You can’t miss them; visit a beach, shopping centre or restaurant and you will be inundated with white linen shirt-wearing giants with strong jawlines and stern expressions.

Phuket’s Facebook pages are quick to lament their existence, claiming the island is not what it used to be when it was engulfed with Brits or Antipodeans. But whatever your point of view, this influx has significantly impacted the island, with a surge in property purchases, the creation of Russianspeaking businesses and a noticeable shift in the cultural landscape. Delving further ahead with a hypothetical time machine, it is worth pondering: when the war ends, will this newfound Russian community in Phuket become permanent?

History offers valuable clues when considering the long-term implications of war-driven migration. The Korean War, for instance, triggered a significant diaspora of Koreans. Fleeing the violence and political instability, an estimated 2 million Koreans resettled in the United States and Europe, establishing vibrant communities that continue to contribute to their adopted nations today. Similarly, World War II led to a mass exodus from Europe, with millions seeking new lives in countries like the United States, Canada and Australia. These historical examples demonstrate how war can act as a powerful catalyst for permanent resettlement.

Phuket’s situation presents both opportunities and challenges. The economic boost from Russian investment is undeniable. Businesses catering to Russian tourists have flourished, while property values have skyrocketed due to increased demand. Local entrepreneurs have embraced the opportunity, with many learning basic Russian phrases and adapting menus to cater to new tastes. However, a sudden departure of this community could leave a significant void. Businesses built on the expectation of a long-term Russian presence could face financial hardship, and the island’s overall economy might suffer a downturn. With the rest of Thailand experiencing a major property downturn, Phuket’s market has held up remarkably, mostly due to our friends from the motherland. (N.B. There are signs in the last month that even Phuket’s property market is significantly shifting.)

Finding the answer to whether the Russians will stay or go lies mostly likely in the war’s resolution.

CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY

If the conflict ends with a fragile peace or a return to a climate of unease in Russia, many Russians in Phuket might choose to remain. The prospect of an uncertain future back home, coupled with the comfort of a familiar community and a thriving business they’ve built in Phuket, could incentivize them to stay. Additionally, children who have started attending local schools and families who have established social circles might find it difficult to uproot themselves again.

For Phuket, this scenario presents the challenge of adapting to a potentially long-term Russian presence. Investing in Russian-language classes for tourism and hospitality workers could be a strategic move. Encouraging cultural exchange programs and events showcasing both Thai and Russian traditions could foster a sense of community and belonging for both residents and tourists.

SWIFT RESOLUTION

A swift and decisive end to the war, with a return to pre-war stability in Russia, could lead to a mass exodus of Russians from Phuket. The allure of returning home to rebuild their lives and careers close to their families and friends could outweigh the comfort of their newfound haven. This scenario would pose a significant challenge to Phuket’s economy, potentially leaving a gap in tourism revenue and a surplus of vacant properties. If even a small percentage of them tried to sell properties bought during their time here, it could lead to a crash in the property market, of which we have not seen for some time.

However, Phuket’s resilience and adaptability are well-documented. The island has successfully navigated economic downturns and fluctuations in tourism trends in the past. By focusing on attracting tourists from other regions, such as Southeast Asia, Europe and the Middle East, Phuket could bridge the economic gap left by a potential Russian departure, but the property market would take significant time to recover and would likely see developers who are currently investing like never before on the island suffering severely.

LOCAL VOICES

Various Russian friends and confidants have given great insight into what lies ahead. The Russian community here is very divided in their opinions on the war and what the future holds for them. Many are young men either alone or with their families who have ‘dodged the draft’ and moved to Thailand as it is a welcoming place with a relatively cheap lifestyle. These immigrants fear for their return to Russia and potential ramifications they may face for fleeing military service. Major regime change at the end of the war may negate this and allow amnesty for them. Many of the people we spoke to highlighted the fact that many Russians who could not deal with life on the island have already left, either to return to Russia or to try life elsewhere.

The general consensus is that Russians here fall into two groups. The first are those who are renting, just trying to survive and waiting for the day they can return to Russia. This group is smaller and finds life in Phuket harder; as mentioned, a lot have already departed as they could not assimilate with life here.

The second group is larger and has formed a vibrant expatriate community among themselves. They have either bought or rented long-term properties. Many work remotely, commute to other Asian hubs for business and have bought and invested in local businesses (both legally and not). Their children attend international schools across the island, and they now see this as their home. Many are unsure about the political and economic viability of a Russian economy post-conflict and would rather chance their future here.

THE OTHER CATALYST

The major topic that many of the people we spoke to though was the cost of living in Phuket. Whilst Thailand is often painted as a cheap and cost-saving place to live, people were shocked about the cost of rent, lifestyle and basic groceries and how much they had gone up in the past 12 months. These rises are often blamed by many in the wider expatriate community on Russians, but it seems they are not immune to them, and if prices did continue to rise, many on lower incomes may be forced to look elsewhere for alternative places to live.

The war in Ukraine has cast a long shadow over Phuket, bringing an influx of Russians seeking refuge. While the war’s end remains uncertain, one thing is clear: Phuket stands at a crossroads. By analysing historical trends, considering potential future scenarios, and listening to local voices, Phuket can prepare for either outcome, with evidence suggesting that a majority will stay. Whether the rest of the island inhabitants like it or not and whether the Russians stay or go, the island’s future prosperity hinges on its ability to adapt, innovate, and leverage its natural resources and cultural richness to attract visitors and immigrants from all corners of the globe.

Simon Causton is a long-time Phuket resident, founder of Citadel Phuket and author of ‘The Phuket Periodical’ newsletter. X (Twitter): @SimonCauston