Brexit: Reaching a crescendo

Avid readers of this column might have already noticed that I’m trying to focus on emerging markets instead of the country (the UK) where I have lived for more than two years. Relative to the economic turmoil in Turkey, the United Kingdom shines brighter in terms of the train wreck of Brexit which eventfully occur next March. Furthermore, the sidelined Prime Minister Theresa May is trying to sell her cabinet’s plan (the Chequers plan) on Brexit at every turn, whether domestically or internationally.

Last week, the events reached their peak during the EU summit in Salzburg, Austria. The Salzburg summit was not designed with a central focus on Brexit; instead, it covered security and migration, so May’s expectations were naive. The working lunch on Brexit served only as an occasion to reiterate the EU27 stance that the UK had to give ground. In a televised speech after the meeting on September 21, May warned that the Brexit negotiations are at an impasse and there will be no progress until the European Union treats her proposals seriously. She accused EU leaders of showing the UK a lack of respect after they rebuffed her Chequers plan without, she said, any alternative or explanation.

After all, Barnier had already updated the EU27 on Brexit progress on September 18 at the General Affairs Council meeting. May next has to get the September 30 to October 3 Conservative Party conference out of the way. She is certainly going to face a barrage of criticism in the party congress. The PM will have to modify her proposals on the Irish border. However, the UK and the EU27 may, yet again, agree to put the border issue in the “too hard” pile and agree to find a solution in the transition period. The most likely outcome remains an acceptance at some stage of the whole of the UK being in some kind of customs union for goods.

Furthermore, if that is not acceptable, then there might need to be some hard talking with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) of Northern Ireland, which supports the fragile May cabinet. May’s Conservative Party is divided over Brexit and lacks a majority in the House of Commons. Any deal she makes will need to be ratified by the Parliament before the UK formally quits the bloc at the end of March 2019. For Labour, that parliamentary vote presents a possible opportunity to trigger an early general election. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said he would be ready to back another EU referendum if party members want one. In an interview with the BBC, he said he would be “bound” by the outcome of a vote at the Labour Party conference - although he would prefer to have a general election. The events on the Brexit front are far from over.