Normalization data

Following two months of coronavirus lockdowns, we will see the June consumer confidence indices this week. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will publish the consumer confidence index on Monday and the trade, construction, services, and industrial confidence indices on Wednesday. The sectoral confidence indices declined in April and strengthened in May after the initial shock. Consumer confidence index increased above the March value in May.

The indices to be announced this week will be much stronger than the May data, no doubt. Five factors support the expected upward trend in these indices: 1-The normalization of social life2-Low credit interest rates3-Increasing consumer expenditures due to the decline in the deposit rate4-Oostponed demand since the end of March,

5-Increase in debit and credit card expenditures. May tourism statistics are another important data set to be announced this week. We already know the results of this data because we couldn’t host foreign tourists during the previous month as borders were closed and flights banned in May and April. There may be an increase in the number of tourists in June and these numbers will further improve in July. But 2020 will not be a good year for the tourism sector.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce the new rate decision on Thursday. Following nine consecutive rate cuts, the market expects another 25 basis point reduction in interest.

The International Monetary fund (IMF) will announce the new World Economic Outlook Report on Wednesday. The IMF President said last week that the authority will make downward revisions for the 2020 growth estimates of various countries. In the previous report, the IMF said the global economy would contract by three percent, while the Turkish economy would shrink five percent in 2020.

DATA TO FOLLOW THIS WEEK

Monday 10:00 – June customer confidence index

Monday 11:00 – May tourism data

Wednesday 10:00 – June sectoral confidence

indices

Wednesday 10:00 – June real sector confidence

index

Wednesday 17:00 – IMF World Economic Outlook

Report

Thursday 14:00 – MPC interest decision