Is China too big to fail?
► Is the Chinese economy too big ? How about military reach and might? Is China still on the rise or is it already stalling, having run its course and passed its heyday as a global growth engine?
► Yes, it is very big. Yes, it stalled a bit but this does not change the picture much. China has many primary product reserves. Perhaps except oil it has everything and can produce everything.
► If we think of China and Russia as allies –not all that certain, the economic size and prowess comes all from China. Russia is economically not on a par with China. China is a heavyweight.
► However, the shifting trends clearly show that China and BRICS replaced whatever trade volume loss Russia suffered resulting from sanctions. Not all the world thinks the U.S. has always reason.
► We know that the two world wars were almost predestined in the sense that Germany could never win a prolonged war. The Axis had simply no economic power to rival the production of the U.S. and the USSR. Indeed, the Allies’ weapons’ production dwarfed the Axis during WWII.
► What about China and Russia against the Western Alliance? Nuclear war is never tested, and it will definitely be a disaster for everyone, so let us pass a judgment on conventional military capabilities.
► In a prolonged war, the outcome is not as obvious as it was –or had to be- in the beginning of two world wars. Mark Harrison and his colleagues demonstrated years ago that economically Germany and its allies did not stand a chance. Today, the outcome is far less certain.