European nations on bumpy road to becoming Ukraine’s arsenal
EU countries, which have already spent billions on military aid for Ukraine, are still unable to meet the needs of Kyiv on their own due to different factors, including a lack of full defense integration, analysts opine
EUROPEAN nations have injected billions into defense spending and military aid since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago but analysts opine the continent’s defense industry is still far from being able to supply Kyiv on its own.
About $44.5 billion in arms have flowed from the United States to Ukraine since Russian tanks rolled in on Feb. 24, 2022.
But Washington’s failure to agree to a new tranche of support and the potential reelection of Donald Trump to the White House in November could leave it up to Europe to plug a vast gap.
EU spending on aid has totaled 28 billion euros ($30 billion) over two years, with a further 20 billion euros planned this year, according to the bloc’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has nevertheless urged allies to “do more.”
Individual member states have upped defense spending, with France’s President Emmanuel Macron even talking of a “war economy.”
But just nine of the 27 member states spent more than NATO’s nominal floor of 2% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defense last year.
Germany, France and Italy – the EU’s wealthiest countries, with worldclass defense industries – were not among them.
“European countries have not massively increased their budgets since the invasion of Ukraine, and they haven’t been ordering much either” from manufacturers, said Renaud Bellais, an economist specializing in the defense industry.
‘FRAGMENTED’
Production lines are rolling out equipment, including anti-aircraft and anti-tank missiles, shells and cannons, whether heading for Ukraine or rebuilding depleted national stockpiles.
The EU has fallen short of an initial goal to ramp up production of critical 155 mm artillery shells but expects to build 1.4 million of them in 2025 – 200,000 more than the U.S. plans.
“European production capacity isn’t so negligible, but it’s quite fragmented – for instance, 15 shell manufacturers spread across 11 countries – and not at all coordinated,” Bellais said.
Meeting Ukrainian demand “will take time, because we haven’t got organized to do it,” while actually building military equipment can take “several months or even years,” he added.
“Currently the European defense and technology-industrial base is not able to meet wartime demands,” analyst Christian Moelling of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) think tank wrote in a recent note.
With defense spending largely cut to the bone during the post-Cold War “peace dividend” years, European industry “lost the capacity to scale up production,” he added.
Rather than rebuilding domestic manufacturing, some European countries
have turned to “off-the-shelf procurement,” especially from the United States – already seen especially in Central and Eastern Europe as the indispensable security guarantor, Moelling said.
Of 100 billion euros in arms spending by EU countries from 2022 to mid2023, 63% went to buy U.S. products and 13% to South Korea.
‘NATIONAL EGOTISM’
Meanwhile, European defense firms are reluctant to invest in ramping up production capacity without contracts guaranteeing sales for the long term – fears Brussels is struggling to soothe by organizing group orders among multiple states.
“It remains an open question whether increased defense spending in the EU will translate into strengthening EU industry ... or, on the contrary, will deepen dependence” on allies such as Washington, Aleksandra Koziol of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) think tank wrote in a research note.
Not all EU countries back the drive for “strategic autonomy” by leading members such as France, lacking a direct economic self-interest.
Central and Eastern European industries “are not in a position to contribute significantly to European projects” in defense, Moelling wrote.
Where states have national champions they are not shy about pushing them, leaving Europe in “a framework of national egotism,” economist Bellais said, pointing to “tension between the language on defense and budget restrictions.”
“People are scared, but not enough to change the way they do things,” he added.
Nevertheless, “unless the Europeans fully integrate their defense effort and operate as a single entity, they will never be able to match the breadth and depth of U.S. capabilities,” said Mark Cancian of the U.S. think tank the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Some in Kyiv nevertheless believe the Europeans will one day be able to shoulder the Americans’ share of the load.
“The process has already begun,” one Ukrainian diplomat told Agence France-Presse (AFP).
“It’s going to take time, we just have to hang on.”