Russia’s war on Ukraine: What future holds after 2 years of invasion
This February marks 10 years since the member of the U.N. Security Council and a nuclear-powered state – Russia – decided to disobey international law and its obligations to the international community by illegally annexing Crimea and occupying the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine. At the same time, it is two years since Russia shattered all the illusions some may have had and invaded the entire territory of Ukraine, launching a campaign of military terror and genocide.
Every Ukrainian heart was shattered by the tragedies in Irpin and Bucha; Mariupol shook the entire nation to its core. Bakhmut and Avdiivka are scars carved deep into our collective memory, wounds that will never fully heal. Kharkiv is still an open wound we as a nation will tirelessly strive to heal, but its pain will linger long after the battles are won. Each vanished, lost or destructed city leaves us grieving with bleeding wounds that will persist for decades, even after our eventual victory.
One of the most frequently asked questions is – how are things on the battlefield? There is no easy answer. Ukraine does receive military support, it being weapons and armor from our international friends, however, Russia’s supplies are also permanently renewed. Russia demonstrates a commitment to the protracted war of attrition, hoping to win with the use of its still considerable resources, war fatigue and nuclear blackmail. All the weapons produced by Russia are immediately delivered to the battlefield. Covering the deficit, the Russian army is terrorizing our cities with artillery shells and ballistic missiles from North Korea, Iranian drones are destroying our civilian infrastructure, and a million artillery shells are soon coming from Pyongyang.
Furthermore, Russians do not value their human resources, continuing to accumulate troops while losing a great number of soldiers in “human wave attacks.” They sacrifice an average of 400 soldiers in exchange for 1 square kilometer (0.39 square mile) of land. Only by understanding the Russian casualties can one comprehend the extent of the toll. Russia’s four-month offensive on the destroyed Donetsk town of Avdiivka, in eastern Ukraine, cost more lives than the 10 years of war Moscow waged under the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Currently, 26% of Ukrainian territories are occupied. Nevertheless, 50% of the territory occupied after Feb. 24, 2022, has been liberated by the Defense Forces of Ukraine. Two years ago, most of the world’s governments and media, not to mention Russia itself, gave Ukraine no more than three or five days to survive. We have survived and, in fact, become stronger.
In revenge for its military losses on the battlefield, Russia continues terrorizing Ukrainian civilians by attacking critical infrastructure and residential areas with missiles, guided aerial bombs and attack drones, resulting in significant casualties and destruction. Only in 2023, Ukraine overcame 6,000 air alerts and over 7,500 missiles. More than 3,800 Shahed drones have been fired by the Russians in Ukraine since the beginning of the war. Entire cities vanished, with all their civilians, who will never be able to see the light of day again. Unfortunately, this proves that every delay of weapons and other aid has a huge cost – land and lives. The faster each bullet, drone, air defense system reaches the front line, the more lives will be saved.
The impact of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine extends far beyond the battlefield, and beyond Ukraine itself. With the ecological disasters that this war is causing, many future generations will have to suffer the consequences. I am not only talking about Ukrainians. The destruction of the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station not only threatened the supply of drinking water for millions, it also endangered the agricultural production on hundreds of thousands of hectares of land in southern Ukraine and catastrophically polluted the Black Sea. If the Russians went through with their nuclear blackmail, we would be talking about affecting not only the Black Sea region, but most of Europe too.
WHAT’S NEXT?
The second most asked question is – what’s next, how will this war resolve? Despite all the horrific challenges the war brings, Ukrainians, like no other nation, have proven our resilience and our ability to unite in front of a greater evil. Don’t be mistaken, all the opportunities that this war has unleashed are the basic necessities of warfare. Our children and women adapted to the new realities abroad and inside Ukraine. Our engineers and researchers have shown unseen creativity to push our capacity to produce innovative and game-changing technologies.
An example of such innovation is the active use and development of UAVs. Operating without a naval force, Ukraine managed to destroy almost a third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, including its flagship cruiser Moscow. A lot of the Russian naval vessels, including the large landing ship Caesar Kunikov sunken recently by the coast of Crimea, were destroyed by Ukrainian-made sea drones, opening a new chapter in the history of naval warfare. Existing limitations, such as the smaller size of the army, shortages in weapons, and others, facilitate the application of new approaches to defense and asymmetric warfare. Despite all odds, Ukraine forced the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation to relocate all the way to Abkhazia.
I would not let the unprecedented level of support by our international allies out of the equation. The Ukrainians impressed the world with their determination and heroism, which has influenced the reformatting of international aid and contributed to the reshaping of aid to Ukraine: from helmets and resources for direct humanitarian assistance to the supply of modern military equipment, including F-16 military aircraft. Some 24 countries have joined the G-7 framework agreement to ensure security guarantees for Ukraine. Ukraine has signed security guarantees with France and Germany and continues negotiations with the U.S., Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Italy and the EU, as well as agreed to start working with Sweden, Norway and Romania on bilateral documents on security guarantees. We call on other states to consider joining it as well: any country taking part sends a clear message to the aggressor that peace has no alternatives.
In this context, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Peace Formula remains the only realistic and comprehensive plan to restore Ukraine’s territorial integrity and to guarantee security and justice for the entire international community. This plan includes radiation, nuclear power, food, energy security; release of all prisoners and deportees; implementation of the U.N. Charter and restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and world order; withdrawal of Russian troops and cessation of hostilities; return of justice; countering ecocide; preventing escalation and fixing the end of the war.
TÜRKİYE’S ROLE
Türkiye has played a significant role once again, proving that even before the full-scale invasion we had a trustworthy friend by our side. The Baykar TB2 UAVs purchased in 2019, in the beginning of 2022 proved their effectiveness and helped in the destruction of Russian convoys. These weapons bring glory on the front line not only to Ukraine, but also to Türkiye, whose engineers and industry are capable of producing revolutionary weapon systems.
We have been able to establish a very fruitful cooperation with Türkiye in the field of defense. The construction of two corvettes for the Ukrainian Navy by Turkish engineers, the building of the Baykar drone factory in Ukraine, and Ukrainian-originated and produced engines becoming the hearts of Turkish drones – are great examples of such cooperation. Türkiye’s recent significant achievements in the field of aircraft, for example, the maiden flight of the KAAN fighter jet, are undoubtedly promising and ought to bring peace to the region.
Türkiye continues its assistance in the form of diplomatic support and hosting peace talks aimed at resolving the conflict diplomatically. Moreover, every Ukrainian is grateful for the immense role that Türkiye is playing in the exchange of prisoners of war, recognizing its crucial contribution to achieving justice and peace.
At the same time, Russian propaganda is doing everything it can to reduce support among the country’s population and is taking provocative measures to drive a wedge into the Ukrainian-Turkish partnership. It is important to keep in mind our common interests and defend them, avoiding manipulation. We rely on Türkiye’s unwavering principled support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, as well as its firm stance against the aggressor’s propaganda attempts to justify the war. We are confident that security in the Black Sea region can be ensured by strengthening UkrainianTurkish cooperation, including in the framework of Ukraine’s NATO membership.
The support from the international community has proven that Ukraine gained both reliable allies and loyal friends, who will not let Ukraine stand alone. What’s next? If our partners would not believe in our victory, we would not be where we are now. However, our strength above all comes from our people: 73% of the Ukrainian population are ready to fight and endure as long as it takes to win, and at the same time 80% believe in the victory of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Even with the undeniable motivation, our victory depends heavily on the speed of weapons and ammunition supplies from our Western allies, especially F-16 fighter jets.
The support from the international community has proven that Ukraine gained both reliable allies and loyal friends, who will not let Ukraine stand alone