Demographic transformation of Türkiye: Aging crisis looming
Türkiye is still classified among the countries with a young population. However, Türkiye’s demographic window of opportunity is narrowing day by day, as the country rapidly heads toward the aging crisis experienced by all developed countries.
Demographic statistics regarding Türkiye’s population structure are published regularly by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Data on the results of the latest census conducted with the Address-Based Population Registration System for the year 2023 have been announced recently, and the latest data clearly reveals Türkiye’s demographic transformation and troubles ahead. The current data contains information that will have very important consequences in terms of the economy, social policies and politics of Türkiye.
According to the latest data, there is a serious decrease in Türkiye’s annual population growth in 2023. The population, which increased by 7.1 per thousand in 2022, has increased by 1.1 per thousand in 2023. This is the lowest level in the history of the republic. Before this, the lowest annual population growth rate was experienced in 2020, when severe pandemic conditions were effective, with 5.5 per thousand. The population growth rate was seen at 7.1 per thousand in 2022, the second lowest level of the previous period.
There is also a striking decline in the fertility rate. We see that the fertility rate in Türkiye was at 2.1, which is the “golden ratio (replacement level)” in 2017 and has decreased to 2.01 in 2018 and 1.97 in 2019. As of 2022, the fertility rate has decreased to 1.97. A population growth rate below 2.1, which is the renewal rate of the population and referred to as the “golden ratio,” is an indication that a country is rapidly heading toward an aging crisis. First, the COVID-19 pandemic and then the economic crisis have inhibited families’ desire for children. Another reason for the decline in the fertility rate is that the number of people living alone is increasing every year, reaching 5.2 million in 2023.
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s famous advice to newlyweds, “have at least three children,” essentially aims to regress this critical transformation in the population and maintain Türkiye’s relative advantage.
While Türkiye’s young population is a strategic advantage, this outlook is changing rapidly, and Türkiye is slowly aging. While the median age of the population was 27-29 in 2007, it increased to 34 in 2023. Although this median age data seems quite “young” compared to the median age of many EU member countries, it is alarming data for Türkiye.
The latest data published by TurkStat provides striking data that clearly reveals the change in Türkiye’s population structure where Türkiye’s population stagnated in 2023. Türkiye’s population has increased by a tiny 92,000 in 2023, reaching 85.37 million people. According to this data, while there was a population increase of approximately 600,000 people in the previous
year, this increase remained at only 90,000 people in 2023. In other words, the number of increases in 2023 has decreased by half a million. It is certain that the high cost of living and the great earthquake of Feb. 6 had serious impacts on this significant rapid decline.
SUPPORT FOR RURAL
The data also show that Türkiye’s population is largely concentrated in cities, metropolitan areas and the western regions of the country. While there are 111 people per square kilometer nationwide, this figure becomes 3,013 people in Istanbul. The population living in provinces and districts is 79.4 million people (93% of the total population), and the population living in towns and villages is approximately 6 million people (approximately 7% of the total population). The rate of people living in provincial and district centers, which was 93.4% in 2022, decreased to 93% in 2023.
According to the statistics, 38% of Türkiye’s population of more than 85 million lives in five major provinces: Istanbul alone hosts nearly a quarter of the country’s population, and with this population, it has a larger population than many countries in Europe. The same is true for Ankara, İzmir, Bursa and Antalya.
While the urban population decreased by 21,987 people in 2023, the rural population increased by 306,811 people. Eleven provinces affected by the Feb. 6 quakes experienced a total population loss of 220,450 people. The population of Istanbul decreased by 252,027 in one year. According to the latest data, although the rate of people living in towns and villages has increased from 6.6% to 7%, this low rate of people living in rural areas is an indicator that agricultural production will be even more problematic in the future.
Especially today, when food inflation is the main agenda of both Türkiye and the world, supporting the rural population and agricultural/livestock production emerges as a strategic goal for Türkiye.
DECREASE IN FOREIGNERS
As it is known, Türkiye is the country that hosts the most refugees in the world relative to its population and provides the highest humanitarian aid to them compared to its gross domestic product (GDP). With this policy, Türkiye receives praise from organizations such as the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and the Council of Europe, as well as from the European Union.
The latest data also shows the change in the proportion of foreigners in Türkiye’s population. As of the end of 2023, the number of refugees living in Türkiye has been announced as approximately 4.7 million people. Most of them are refugees who have escaped from the cruel regime in Syria. They are followed by Afghans and Iraqis. Among the 1.6 million foreigners who came to work or reside in Türkiye, other than those who came as refugees, the population with the highest number are Iraqis. These
are followed by Afghans, Germans, Turkmens and the British.
According to the latest data, the foreign population residing in our country decreased by 253,293 people compared to the previous year and reached 1.57 million people. Some 48.6% of this population are men and 51.4% are women. Although this decrease is the effect of the economic crisis and the tightening of immigration policies, it seems that foreign interest in Türkiye will never end. Aging Türkiye’s ability to attract a qualified foreign population also emerges as a strategic goal.
The traces of Türkiye’s demographic transformation are also seen in the proportion of the population in the 15-64 age group, defined as the working age. This rate, which was 66.5% in 2007, has increased to 68.3% in 2023. The total age dependency ratio, which shows the number of children and elderly individuals per working-age individual, has also decreased from 46.8% in 2022 to 46.3% in 2023. The reason for this is that the demographic window of opportunity has not yet been completely closed. It seems possible that Türkiye can still be protected, at least partially, from the devastating effects of the aging crisis if it makes good use of the next 10 years and can create good education and good jobs for workers.
According to the data, in 2023, the proportion of the population in the 0-14 age group, defined as the child age group, decreased from 26.4% to 21.4%, while the proportion of the population aged 65 and over increased from 7.1% to 10.2%. When we analyze the increase in the elderly population together with the data that the country pays pensions to nearly 16.5 million retirees every month, the financial and sociological confrontation ahead of Türkiye becomes clearer.
While the child dependency ratio, which represents the number of children per working-age individual, decreased from 32.3% to 31.4%, the elderly dependency ratio, which measures the number of elderly individuals per working-age individual, has increased from 14.5% to 15%. In other words, every 100 people of working age in Türkiye will care for 31.4 children and 15 elderly people in 2023. In other words, the working-age population is increasing, but the dependent population is increasing faster. The increase in dependency is the main challenge of the emerging Turkish welfare regime.
Türkiye, once with a youthful population, is now nearing the aging crisis seen in developed nations as its demographic window of opportunity shrinks
DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION
In sum, the latest data reveal the following stark reality, which has important consequences for social and public policies in Türkiye: Türkiye’s population has entered the aging process. The population growth rate in Türkiye is decreasing and now, it is an irreversible process. The population has not increased in 2023, it has stagnated. Türkiye is facing a very serious demographic confrontation.
Whether Türkiye will seize the window of opportunity and make a soft landing or enter the aging crisis like a car crashing into a wall will depend on the policies it will implement in the next decade.
The latest data show that the working-age population is also increasing, but the dependent elderly population is increasing faster. Moreover, more than 90% of people live in cities, which has critical consequences for urban policies, development policies and agricultural production. Finally, although the number of foreigners living in Türkiye has decreased by a quarter million, with more than 6 million foreigners, Türkiye is still an attraction center for people from all over the world.