Experts warn against possible earthquake in eastern Anatolia
seismic activity continues to rumble beneath the surface, experts are cautioning the eastern Anatolia region to prepare themselves against a potential earthquake. The region, particularly the Eastern Anatolian Fault Line, is identified as a hot spot where energy accumulates, increasing the likelihood of seismic events.
Orhan Kavak, a lecturer at Dicle University’s Engineering Faculty in the Mining Engineering Department, highlighted the inevitability of earthquakes in Türkiye, emphasizing the country’s susceptibility to seismic events. Kavak warned, “Earthquakes are a certainty in our future, and it is crucial to understand this reality.”
Kavak pointed out that Bingöl and its surrounding areas, especially along the Eastern Anatolian Fault Line, are under significant stress accumulation. He predicted, “We can expect earthquakes in Hakkari soon. There has been an energy transfer from Kahramanmaraş and Malatya to Bingöl, indicating the potential for an earthquake with a magnitude exceeding 6 in Bingöl.”
While the exact timing and characteristics of an earthquake cannot be pinpointed, Kavak stressed that the presence of compressions and energy transfers indicates an imminent risk. He underscored the importance of focusing on the aftermath of an earthquake, stating that preparation and construction of earthquake-resistant structures are paramount in reducing casualties and damage.
Kavak emphasized, “The east and southeast are regions that are constantly under threat of earthquakes. It is not the disasters themselves that claim lives, but rather poorly constructed buildings. By taking precautionary measures and employing appropriate construction techniques, the impact of earthquakes can be minimized, even in the face of a magnitude 8 or 9 earthquake. We must be prepared for an earthquake at every moment, every second.”
Professor Ercan Aksoy, Fırat University’s Faculty of Engineering Department of Geological Engineering also stated that the 6.8 magnitude earthquake that occurred on Jan. 24, 2020, centered in the Sivrice district of Elazığ, was the first sign that the main activity had begun in the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone.
Pointing out that the Kahramanmaraşcentered earthquakes occurred afterward on Feb. 6, 2023, Aksoy stated that the number of aftershocks that started after these earthquakes reached 40,000.
Emphasizing that the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the East Anatolian Fault Zone meet near the Karlıova district of Bingöl, Aksoy said that the area encompasses “Gürün, Darende, around Malatya’s Pütürge district, and secondly, the Eastern Anatolian Fault Zone in the Yeşilyurt region, descending from Kahramanmaraş Göksun toward Adana.” He stated that there were many aftershocks due to the earthquakes on Feb. 6, 2023.
Aksoy said that the aftershocks that occurred in the continuation of the southern branch of this fault zone, around Hatay, Kahramanmaraş, Adıyaman Çelikhan, and between Malatya and Adıyaman’s Sincik district, will make themselves felt for a while.
Stating that there is an unbroken section in the East Anatolian Fault Zone, from Palu to the north-east of Elazığ, to Bingöl, and that they foresee that this poses a risk, Aksoy said: “Faults produce earthquakes when enough energy accumulates on them and they break. These are called earthquake recurrence intervals of faults, but we do not know the earthquake recurrence interval on faults that have not been studied. It is not possible to formulate an opinion about how many earthquakes occur every year and what magnitude of earthquakes they produce.”
Aksoy pointed out that Bingöl Karlıova faces a heightened earthquake risk due to its location between the North Anatolian Fault Zone and the East Anatolian Fault Zone. He explained that this positioning makes Tunceli and Bingöl particularly vulnerable. Aksoy emphasized that as long as these areas remain situated between these fault zones, the risk of earthquakes will persist. He highlighted the Gökdere to Bingöl stretch as the most perilous section of the East Anatolian Fault Zone, noting that its long dormancy indicates a potential for imminent seismic activity. Another area of concern is the Yedisu segment, part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, which ruptured from Erzincan to Yedisu during the 1992 earthquake. Given that the last major earthquake in this segment occurred in 1939, surpassing its average recurrence interval of approximately 230 years, Aksoy concluded that the Yedisu segment also poses a significant risk.