Elections, credentials and future challenges for Pakistan
Though the Pakistani government under Prime Minister Sharif recently took oaths, the real question still remains if the new government will be different from the past
This year may be remembered as a year of elections as five major populous nations face parliamentary or presidential elections. Bangladesh, Pakistan and Indonesia have already had their share, while India and the United States are yet to go for the same.
As expected, the Feb. 8 elections in Pakistan were not an easy exercise in the backdrop of political drama and chaos after the removal of cricketer-turned-politician Prime Minister Imran Khan from power through a no-confidence motion in April 2022, which then, for many, was a soft coup. His removal through a no-trust vote, itself the first incident in the electoral history of Pakistan, was apparently an outcome of a conspiracy by a rainbow of his political opponents and growing discord between him and the Establishment (Army clique) due to Khan’s stubborn politics. The removal of Khan was soon followed by the enthronement of Shahbaz Sharif, brother of selfimposed-exiled former Prime Minister and chief of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) Nawaz Sharif, as prime minister with the support of their parties.
However, Shahbaz’s 21-month spell as prime minister was marred by multiple crises ranging from economic to constitutional and there was a moment when the country was almost on the verge of sliding into a Sri Lanka-like economic catastrophe until it was rescued by the intervention of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank and inflows of billions of U.S. dollars from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Even the date of Feb. 8 for the election was fixed after the legalscale conflict between Parliament, judiciary and electoral commission.
POST-ELECTION LANDSCAPE
No stone was left un-hurled to bar Khan and his party from February’s electoral race and even bringing back three-time Premier Nawaz Sharif back to Pakistan through judicial manipulation and a legal amendment was part of the same design. But the outcome of the Feb. 8 polling was full of surprises and upsets in many ways as Khan-supported candidates, despite their mentor being in jail, won a maximum number of seats (93). Khan loyalists had fought the election as independent after Khan’s party, the Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI), was deprived of its election symbol (cricket bat). In this election, Khan loyalists and his party cadres outsmarted all their opponents by maximalist use of social media and other unique means to reach out to larger masses.
Some of the prominent Khan defectors also lost the elections to Khan-supported independent candidates. The PML came second (75), which scuttled all the hopes of Nawaz to preserve his long-held position as an architect of Pakistan polity and hence, he withdrew from the race for prime minister in fear of leading a lousy and uncertain coalition. The Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) emerged only third (54) under the leadership of the son-father duo who, in the current political spheres, have emerged as the real kingmaker.
The outcome of the Feb. 8 election, like most elections in thirdworld countries, was marred by a lot of complaints of rigging and a last-minute change in the list of losers and winners. There are abundant media reports of turning winning seats into defeats to harm the prospects of Khan loyalists. One of the prominent leaders of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI-F) refused to accept his victory, saying that he was declared winner wrongly to defeat the Khan-loyalist independent candidate. Even after 15 days of elections, several cities and towns are witnessing protests and marches against the Election Commission, judiciary and the Establishment as well, and many parties are seeking reelection. One senator of Khan’s party sought the summoning of Election Commission officials to explain the truth. A Pakistani national filed a petition in the Supreme Court seeking nullification of the Feb. 8 elections, though it was dismissed by the chief justice and the petitioner was also imposed fine.
The large-scale poll irregularities have also drawn strong criticism from countries like the U.S., U.K. and European Union members as well and they have urged the probe. Even U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called upon Pakistan’s authority to resolve the election-related issues.
After several rounds of marathon meetings between the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) and the PPP, both sides reached an agreement: the post of prime minister would be held by Nawaz’s brother Shahbaz and the post of National Assembly speaker would be with the PPP. In the upcoming presidential election, Asif Zardari, a veteran of the PPP and former president, will be the joint candidate of both the PML-N and the PPP.
BLEAK FUTURE ON HORIZON
Though newly elected members of the 16th National Assembly (NA) were sworn in on Thursday, the real question still remains if the new government will be different from the past. Many are still unsure if it can change the economic fate of the nation, which is deeply sunk in an unprecedented debt and has become captive to the dictates of international economic institutions like the IMF and World Bank for the sake of receiving loans in the future. Masses are in dire condition because of the high rate of food inflation, rising electricity bills and mounting price of petrol, which has already tormented the middle and lower strata of society and pushed them on the brink of poverty. The national economy is further battered by high interest rates, currency depreciation, energy woes and faulty trade policy. The fall in the share price on the stock market and local currency in the wake of the election reflects uncertainty about the prospect of political stability. The new government will have to fight the rampant corruption within the system and according to a report, 62 % of the state revenue is lost to corruption.
On the domestic security and international front, challenges are no less. The first and foremost challenge for the new government would be to contain the surge in terrorism and extremism within the country and to recalibrate its relationship with Afghanistan and Iran which in recent months have witnessed an unsolicited erosion. Similarly, the country is no longer treated as a close ally of the U.S. in the region, and its global stature has declined drastically. Hence, the country needs new diplomatic and strategic approaches to restore its past image.
For bold and wide-ranging economic decisions, a nation needs to have a strong and stable government, which this election has failed to provide as the PML-N, despite its vehement effort, could not induce its ally, the PPP, to join the government. So, the PML-N is likely to remain at the mercy of the PPP, which, under the new arrangement, has kept the post of speaker for itself, and Zardari once again would be made the president. In such circumstances, the future of the Shabaz-led government will depend on the pleasure of the speaker and president and both posts would belong to the PPP. Another big challenge for the new government would be to recraft its relationship with the Establishment, which has acquired a new role in recent years, particularly after the exit of Khan despite all its claims of no more being a political entity. The government-army relationship would certainly determine the longevity of the coalition government. The challenges within Parliament will be no less problematic as the new government will have to face tough opposition and passage of economic and other bills will be a daunting task.
Another big challenge for the ruling clique would be to contain the Imran Khan phenomenon after his exceptional electoral performances despite all odds around him. One does not know if and for how long the judiciary can keep Khan in jail as many senators, including not-so-pro-Khan politicians, are already asking for his release for the political stability of the nation.
The coalition would be in dire need of stability, and that can be achieved only through the adoption of a policy of reconciliation and accommodation. In this process, embracement of generosity and abandonment of obduracy would be a key element.
*New Delhi-based political analyst and associated with a foreign policy think tank