Mending the gate
Politicians must tone down debate over US visa issue and let bureaucrats resolve dispute
The suspension of the issuing of visas for Turkish citizens at the US diplomatic missions in Turkey was a shocking development last week. Turkey acted in kind, almost replicating the wording used in the US announcement. What does this mean for the future of bilateral relations?
How should we read the v sa cr s s?
It is uncommon for countries to make it difficult for the citizens of a host country to get visas. It has rarely happened elsewhere and never before in Turkey. The rarity of the move makes it a rather powerful step that was clearly unexpected. Unfortunately, because of the difficulties the two governments are having with each other, the citizens of both countries are being penalized. The explanation provided by the US government is that US diplomatic missions do not feel secure enough to offer services to a large number of Turkish citizens. There seems to be no evidence that any major problem ever took place within the visa sections of embassies. Yet this matter, which could have been handled through ordinary procedures, has escalated to a level that is becoming more difficult to repair. The Turkish president has accused the outgoing US ambassador of having engineered this particular measure. My prediction would be that he didn’t do this. Even if he had recommended taking such a step, it is clear that an ambassador can’t make that decision alone. It has to be a decision of the Federal government. It is very likely that this was a considered decision and the US President Donald Trump was aware of it.
Why was such measures taken?
We have to look beyond the field of security and to the broader field of diplomatic activity for an explanation. It seems that a couple of Turkish citizens working for the US Embassy are alleged to have had Gulenist ties. This is possible. I think the sensitivity that the US government is displaying is because of the fact that the Turkish government hasn’t offered the US government a satisfactory explanation of what they have done. The use of US diplomatic facilities to engage in criminal activity against the host government is a very serious crime. I am not surprised that the American government wants to be absolutely sure of the nature of what has been done and reliable evidence supporting the charges of criminal activity. This is necessary in order to ensure that they are not seen as collaborators and that similar activities do not occur in the future.
What s beh nd these dec s ons?
There are a variety of reasons why this measure was taken. It appears within the context of the broader relations between the US and Turkey, the US president was probably bothered by the warm reception extended to the Venezuelan leader Maduro and highly critical remarks directed against the US during his recent visit to Turkey. There are probably other similar considerations. It has been suggested that there is a concern on the American side – which may be unjustified – that, somehow, Turkey is trying to build up legal cases against the Americans with a view to achieving a negotiating position regarding the Turks who are under trial in the American justice system for this or that reason. Of course, this reflects a misunderstanding of how the American judicial system works and how international relations are conducted. To cite a different example, sometimes the people involved in illegal activities on behalf of one country are extradited; but this is done quietly rather than erupting into a major issue of governmental debate.
Is t more pol t cal than d plomat c?
At the moment the situation is out of the hands of regular bureaucratic agencies and it has become a matter that has been taken over by the political leadership. Therefore, it has to be solved at the political level. The starting point might be to end the declarations and the public debate and let matters cool a little bit. Maybe then the foreign ministers could communicate and find a way to get out of this fray which is benefiting neither the Turks nor the Americans. The US needs Turkey’s cooperation in Syria and Iraq. The US is an expanding market for Turkey. All in all, it is not a particularly good idea to make it difficult for Turks and Americans to get visas. We should work to increase our ties if we want a better understanding of each society. There are many areas where the Americans are not sufficiently appreciative of Turkish positions and complaints and vice versa. Adding barriers to people’s mobility is not going to improve things.
Was Turkey’s repr sal appropr ate?
Turkey seems to act rather swiftly in responding to these challenges. Sometimes it may act a bit too quickly without consulting the relevant government agencies, thereby overlooking different courses of possible action and the likely outcome of each. In fact, Turkey might have said it was not going to suspend visas because it was wrong. If we indeed think that the suspension of visas is wrong, there is no reason to repeat the same mistake. I think it was a hasty decision that should not have been rendered into a question of national pride. This is a completely practical matter, and our strategy from the start, should have been to persuade the US government that Turkey’s actions were justified by providing evidence that what was done was something that had to be done within the framework of Turkish laws and Turkey’s security concerns. That would have been the easiest way to manage the affair and not escalate into a visa embargo.
What can we expect to happen?
As the problem has been taken to the level of political debate, it is difficult for the bureaucrats to deal with until the political leaders do two things: Firstly, they must tone down public references to the problem, and second, they must agree that their bureaucracies work on settling the issue. As long as the political leaders continue to exchange public remarks, it is going to be difficult to change the existing situation. My judgment is that neither government wants this disagreement to continue indefinitely and continue to poison the bilateral relations. There will be pressure on both sides – I think possibly more on the Turkish side – to resolve the differences so that Turkish citizens do not experience extreme difficulties in obtaining US visas. If a satisfactory documentation is provided by the Turkish government to substantiate the allegation that some local personnel did things without the knowledge of the American officials, that would be an important development in the right direction.