“Are you any

Percentage play?

good at math?” Cy the Cynic asked me in the club lounge.

“I was doing all right until they introduced the alphabet into it,” I shrugged.

“Well, this is just about numbers,” Cy said. “The so-called ‘principle of restricted choice’ let me down.” As declarer at today’s 3NT, Cy won the first heart with dummy’s ace, led a club and guessed to play his king.

“If the king had won,” Cy said, “I would have had nine tricks. But West took the ace and continued hearts. I ducked and won the third heart.”

Cy next cashed his three top spades, but no jack appeared. He then took the K-Q of diamonds, and East followed with the six and jack.

“On the next diamond,” the Cynic said, “I finessed with dummy’s nine, using ‘restricted choice.’ East produced the ten, and I went down two.”

If East had J-10-6 in diamonds, he could have played either the jack or ten on the second diamond. But if he had J-6 or 10-6, his choice was restricted. So if he plays the jack (or ten), it offers a presumption that he had no choice. That’s “restricted choice,” a valid mathematical concept.

But though Cy’s play was right in theory, it was wrong in this deal. Do you see why?

Say Cy plays the ace on the third diamond, and East discards a club. Then East’s shape will presumably have been 4-3-2-4, and Cy will make 3NT anyway. Dummy will lead a club next. After East takes the queen, and perhaps cashes the jack of spades, he will have to give declarer his ninth trick with the jack of clubs at the end. South dealer

N-S vulnerable

The numbers in

the black cells are clues. Numbers above the slash are across clues, numbers below the slash are down clues. The goal is to enter digits 1-9 in the white cells to add up to the number clues. You cannot enter any digit more than once when adding up a clue.

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