Saudi action in Yemen a strong statement

Apart from bolstering the kingdom’s role in the region, Riyadh has also sent out a strong message to Tehran — that enough is enough

The latest war coalition on Al Houthis in Yemen, led by the Saudis, could arguably be seen as a complete turn-around of the soft foreign-policy approach that the kingdom had been pursuing for at least the last three decades and shied away from overt protraction outside its large territory. Its moves towards striking at Al Houthis daily — a position for which it braced for more than two weeks and seemed to be implemented in a hurry — can be seen as a new Saudi stance not only to protect Yemen, its traditional backyard, but it can also be seen as a “reassuring” stance towards all of the surrounding Gulf states of Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, UAE and Kuwait. These Gulf states are also part of the war coalition as junior partners. The Saudi message is that it will not stand idle and watch a Shiite ascendency in the Gulf.

In the face of shifting stands, altering the balance of power in the region and muscle-flexing by Iran in Iraq and Syria — together with its allies Hezbollah and Al Houthis — it seems Saudi Arabia had very little choice but to wage war on its southern neighbour and seek to restore the political status quo.

If anything, this war may have shown that Saudi Arabia may have acted a little bit too late and that Riyadh should have taken the bull by the horns and sought to move swiftly ever since Al Houthi rebels took over the reins of power in Sana’a in late February and then moved on to capture Aden. Events moved quickly thereafter and now the Al Houthis are straddling vital areas of the city where coalition air strikes and fighting on the ground are being conducted through popular local committees.

The Al Houthis, together with military units of former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, are putting up a stiff resistance despite the fact that they are being bombed not only daily but on a 24-hour basis, leading many analysts to believe that the Al Houthis’ power may have been underestimated and that the war will likely continue for much longer than initially expected. Indeed, the coalition is making no bones about the fact that this conflict in Yemen will continue until President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi is reinstated. Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal said so while addressing a press conference, followed by the daily briefings by coalition spokesman and Adviser to the Saudi Minister of Defence, Brigadier General Ahmad Al Assiri.

In reality, the coalition has already peppered the way for this, especially when it started its international war coalition against Daesh (the self-proclaimed Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant) in late September 2014 when its leaders, including those of the US, said that the war on Daesh could take as long as three years or even 10 years, but it is a war on terror.

Military targets

There is almost a similar situation in Yemen. The coalition is bombing targets, but it appears to be in no hurry and Al Houthi and other military targets and installations, missiles and armoured carriers are being hit repeatedly to make sure they are rendered incapacitated. Although Aden is getting a bashing from the air, other areas are getting the same. These are in the northern, central and western parts of the country, on the Saudi-Yemeni border in Sadda and Omran — the traditional base of the Al Houthis — and in Sana’a — the Yemeni capital, which the Al Houthis took. The objective is to end the Al Houthis once and for all and reinstate Hadi.

This is perhaps the first aggressive stance that Saudi Arabia has taken in a very long time, barring its troop presence in Bahrain to shore up the government in 2011. Saudi Arabia’s initiative in Yemen against the Al Houthis is also designed to bolster the kingdom’s role in the region and make a firm statement that it will not tolerate the dissolution of a friendly regime. It is also a practical and strongly-worded message to Iran that enough is enough and it will not allow the regime in Tehran to ride roughshod over the region regardless of the consequences of the war that it is presently conducting along with nine of its allies — including Jordan, Sudan, Egypt and Morocco.

While Saudi and coalition forces are determined to dislodge the Al Houthis from power, there is much to consider — something that will prolong the war. Military strategists are likely to continue the air campaign until the time is ripe for ground forces to step into Yemen. There are already 150,000 Saudi troops massing on the Saudi side of the border, waiting for the signal to cross into Yemeni. But they are in no hurry to move in.

While the Al Houthis were bitter enemies of Saleh, they have now patched up and make strange bedfellows. The coalition also knows only too well how difficult the terrain is in Yemen. This is probably one of the prime reasons why a land campaign has been put off to a later date. Once Saudi Arabia decides to go in, one can be sure Saudi troops will seek the help of Jordanian, Pakistani, Egyptian and Sudanese troops to back them up in this highly challenging task.