Iranians retreat from Syria combat

RETREAT COMES AFTER REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS LOST SOME TOP OFFICERS IN IDLIB

Tehran is beginning to withdraw its elite fighters from the Russian-led military campaign, US and other Western military officials say

Iran is beginning to withdraw its elite fighters from the Russian-led military campaign in Syria, according to US and other Western military officials, suggesting a fissure in what President Barack Obama derided last month as a “coalition of two”.

US officials say they are seeing significant numbers of Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps troops retreat from the Syrian combat zone in recent weeks, following the deaths and wounding of some of top officers in a campaign to retake Idlib province and other areas lost this year to opposition forces supported by the West and Gulf Arab States.

As a result, the Russian initiated offensive that was launched in September seems to be losing an important ally.

On Friday at the Saban Forum at the Brookings Institution, Israeli Defence Minister Moshe Ya’alon said that Russia’s initial plan was to take back Idlib and other cities that had fallen under rebel control within three months. “It’s not going to happen because of the military difficulties,” he said, adding that the campaign to date looked to be a “failure”.

‘Lack of determination’

He cited the “incompetence” of Syria’s army as well as “the lack of determination of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps”.

This is a surprising turn of events. A number of Western media outlets reported this autumn that Qasem Sulaimani, the leader of Iran’s elite Quds Force, and Russia’s defence ministry, had negotiated an infusion of Iranian forces into Syria over the summer, shortly after the conclusion of the nuclear negotiations between Iran and six other world powers.

That surge was supposed to change the tide of the Syrian war that the dictator Bashar Al Assad was losing, as more of his territory fell to a coalition of rebels supported by the US, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and others.

In October, the Wall Street Journal reported on experts’ assessments there more than 7,000 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps members and other militia volunteers were aiding the Syrian regime.

In late October, General Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, testified there were 2,000 Iranian troops in Syria leading the fight to save Al Assad.

Today that number has dwindled, according to US and other Western officials. One estimate shared by a senior Western defence official said there were only 700 Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps members now fighting in the Russian-led offensive. (That estimate does not include Iranian military advisers who have embedded with the Syrian armed forces since 2012.)

Verifying report

One reason Iran is now withdrawing from Syria, according to US officials, is that many officers have been killed or wounded in the heavy fighting this autumn.

The US intelligence community is still trying to verify reports that Sulaimani himself was injured in late November in Aleppo, Syria’s largest city.

Robert Ford, who served as US ambassador to Syria between 2011 and 2014, said reports from the region suggest that guard corps members are in the very thick of the warfare.

“They are losing lieutenants,” he said. “When you lose lieutenants it means you are losing people fighting on the front lines.” Iran has started acknowledging some of those losses in its official press.

Ford said the fierce combat the Iranians and Russians have encountered is an indication that the Western and Gulf Arab support for the Syrian opposition may be having a significant effect.