Steep cost of congestion in Gulf skies

It has a telling effect on carriers’ ability to place new jet orders

Some readers of the coverage of this year’s Dubai Airshow will have come to the conclusion that the astonishing regional growth in aviation is slowing, if not yet coming to a hard stop.

Notable by their absence this year were the huge orders of wide-body airliners by GCC national flag carriers that have come to symbolise recent Dubai Airshow events. Commercial aircraft orders are significantly down from the $206 billion announced in 2013.

The Dubai Airshow is usually a good indicator of the broader health of the GCC economy. Regionally, aviation supports two million jobs and $116 billion in GDP. Does the Dubai Airshow therefore send up a worrying signal about the state of GCC economies? The short answer is no, or at least not in the short term. In fact, with more than 11,000 exhibitors and 65,000 trade visitors, the Dubai Airshow was actually bigger than it was in 2013.

But it does highlight that a critical issue is now coming to a head: airspace availability. Sir Tim Clark, President of Emirates, indicated that the airline could have purchased a further 100 A380s this year, were it not for constraints in airspace.

Congestion in the skies above the GCC has reached a stage where there is little space left for further aviation growth. A report earlier this year, produced by Oxford Economics and commissioned by NATS, showed that unless changes are implemented in airspace management, the region can expect a $16.3 billion loss of economic growth.

One area of focus is that of the military, considering half of the airspace in the GCC is given over exclusively to military use. In the Middle East, in particular, the importance of world-class national security is paramount. But the conversation over airspace management shouldn’t descend into a simple ‘national security vs economic development’ argument.

Both are interdependent and both need to be managed holistically. Ultimately, greater cooperation between civil and military authorities is a key solution if GCC countries want to facilitate economic development while ensuring national security.

The writer is Director of NATS Middle East.