IS IT A GOOD DEAL? What to look for

Ministers from 195 nations entered the home stretch yeesterday of decades-long UN climate talks. But how will the world know if the agreement, due today, is up to the task?

Here are a few benchmarks for a deal that could make a real difference, according to scientists, policy analysts and advocates:

Ramping up pledges:

Voluntary pledges to slash greenhouse gas emissions submitted by all but a handful of nations are not enough to meet the UN target of holding global warming to two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-Industrial Revolution levels, the threshold for climate catastrophe, according to scientists.

A strong outcome would start the “ratcheting” process even before the five- and 10year pledges enter into force in 2020, and be accompanied by an open-book system to verify actions taken, climate analysts say. It should apply to all countries, not just rich ones, though giving developing nations some leeway to build up their technical know-how.

A new global economy:

To back up the 2C target, the Paris agreement must articulate a long-term goal for transforming the global economy. Scientists have set some markers: no additional CO2 in the atmosphere by about 2060, and no greenhouse gases at all by 2080.

Shooting for an even lower temperature limit of 1.5C — favoured by nations vulnerable to rising seas and extreme drought — would require phasing out fossil fuels even sooner, or overshooting the mark and rowing back.

Putting money on table:

Coming into the Paris talks, developing countries were already assured of receiving $100 billion (Dh367 billion) in climate finance per year from 2020. Details behind that figure were left to be worked out. From the point of view of the recipients, a strong Paris deal would make it clear that the $100 billion pledge was a floor not a ceiling, and would grow over time. If rapidly emerging economies that have moved closer to full industrialisation — such as China and Mexico — were among the donors, even on a purely voluntary basis, it would also strengthen the deal.