Eurozone growth hit a skid in quarter before Brexit

Economic growth in the Eurozone slowed in the second quarter as uncertainty before the British vote to leave the European Union swirled, data showed yesterday, and economists said it could be a sign of future weaker growth.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose 0.3 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the April-June period, halving from the 0.6 per cent growth in the first quarter of the year, European statistics office Eurostat said.

A slowdown was expected after the strong Eurozone growth in the first three months of the year, but it may have been compounded by the uncertainty preceding the June 23 British referendum. Although first confidence data after Brexit showed unexpected optimism in the Eurozone, the economic impact of Britain’s decision to leave the union may be felt later.

“The third quarter started on a good footing, but it is probably too soon to start downplaying the potential negative impact of Brexit on Eurozone growth,” said Peter Vanden Houte, economist at ING bank.

After the Brexit referendum, the European Commission and the European Central Bank slightly revised down their forecasts on Eurozone GDP growth this year and in 2017.

Beyond Brexit, weaker global trade and the lower positive impact of tailwinds may contribute to a further slowdown of the Eurozone economy in the coming months.

“We think that this slowdown in growth is a sign of things to come,” Jack Allen at Capital Economics said. “We think Eurozone GDP growth will slow further over the rest of the year,” he added citing the fading positive impact of low oil prices and the weak euro as causes for the possible further slowdown.

The GDP preliminary estimates released by Eurostat did not include data on individual Eurozone countries, but figures released earlier yesterday by the French statistics office showed a worse-than-expected flat growth in the second largest economy of the bloc.

The disappointing French reading was due to weak consumer spending and a drop in business investment.

The slowdown of the Eurozone economy may strengthen the case for further stimulus from the European Central Bank.