Oil confounds its sceptics again
Readers of this column know that as an oilman, I am aware and support the progress made and the increase in demand for renewable energy. This is because there is no single source of energy capable of fuelling the world, and the environmental and resource conservation advantages of renewable energy cannot be denied.
At the same time, renewable energy can solve a number of logistical problems of providing energy to remote areas or to the poor, especially as the cost is falling rapidly.
But I really get annoyed reading some literature which is politically biased against other sources of energy, especially oil. At the end of the day, these do not serve the public interest and may lead investors losing time and money.
I am referring here to a report issued by Exponential Investors, a group claiming to support investment in new technologies before “they change the world”. The report in question is titled The End of Oil and meant to promote investment in solar energy technology as the all-time saviour of human energy requirements.
The report is replete with statements that sound like propaganda rather than analysis such as “greatest shift in the energy market for 100 years”; “the collapse of the oil kings is imminent”; “oil’s place at the heart of the world economy is over”; “oil’s days are numbered”; and “no oil, no power and no house of Saud” and so on. I think the authors have forgotten the aim of the report and turned it an all-out attack on oil producing countries when they predict that “Nations that have long relied on oil as their route to wealth and power will, at best, suffer a decline and, at worst, collapse altogether” by citing the latest changes in Saudi energy policy. I kept on reading the report hoping to find some projections to support these claims but, alas, there were none.
The report supports its claims by reference to the “peak oil theory” and the fact that oil is a finite resource and that oil production will “hit the point at which [it] begins to fall”.
In theory, I have no problem with that except that the peak oil theory has been with us since the 1950s and world oil production has not peaked yet. The life of oil has been extended by technology where reserves keep rising. And exploration in unimaginably difficult places such as the Arctic, the deep seas and shale formations keeps adding to the resource.
There is no doubt that forecasters agree that solar and wind energy is making huge inroads into the energy mix. Opec forecasts renewable energy, excluding hydro, having a growth rate at 7.6 per cent a year, or from 2.4 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe) a day in 2013 to 17.4 mboe a day in 2040.
Oil demand in 2040 is expected at 110 mad, where about 60 per cent would be in the transport sector. The number of vehicles on the road is forecast to increase from 1,199 million in 2013 to 2,660 million in 2040. According to Tesla Motors, the total supply of lithium is only sufficient to manufacture half a million cars a year.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts world solar electricity supply to increase from 103 billion kilowatt hours (bKWh) in 2012 to 1,127 bKWh in 2040 or the equivalent of about 0.17- to 1.9 million bpd. In relative terms this is an increase from 2.2 per cent to 10.2 per cent of world electricity generation.
All these numbers point to an undoubted future for oil for a long time to come in the service of the world economy along side other energy sources. Exponential Investors will be greatly disappointed.