New Delhi needs a potent strategy to deal with Islamabad
Reshaping diplomatic relations, raising its military budget and closer ties with Afghanistan are some of the options
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi must have now realised the constraints under which his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, functioned in the aftermath of the 26/11 terror attacks on Mumbai in 2008.
At that time, Singh had reportedly considered all the options for punishing the perpetrators, including activating the Cold Start doctrine of a limited war with Pakistan. But the threat of a limited conflict expanding into a nuclear armageddon stopped him from any hasty action.
It is the same scenario today when Modi has no alternative but to ignore the hawks in the saffron brotherhood and among arm-chair warriors, one of whom said on television that India may lose 500 million people in a nuclear war with Pakistan, but 700 million will still survive while Pakistan will be wiped out. The security “expert” recalled Mao Zedong’s infamous observation during the Cold War that enough Chinese will survive a nuclear firestorm to carry on building socialism while capitalism will be exterminated.
Such irrational outbursts — after the deadly suicide strike on Indian soldiers in Uri, in Indian Kashmir — by the Vishwa Hindu Parishad and others have again highlighted India’s dilemma in responding to cross-border provocations, considering that options like the generally-preferred surgical aerial attacks on terror camps inside Pakistan carry the possibility of snowballing into a nuclear war.
Suicide squads that apparently came across the Line of Control have reportedly been found carrying weapons and food packets with Pakistani markings. If India presents these as evidence of Pakistani complicity, Islamabad simply laughs them off, even while calling upon New Delhi to present “actionable intelligence” to prove its charges. A team from Pakistan visited the Pathankot air base in India after it had been targeted by terrorists on a suicide mission earlier this year.
In view of the current scenario, India will have to devise a potent way to deal with its neighbour at a time when the tortuous relations between the two countries have reached a dead end. For a start, it is now clear that there cannot be a return to the earlier on-andoff peace negotiations that occasionally held out the promise of a solution as when former Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh and former Pakistan president Pervez Musharraf considered erasing the LoC.
Two incidents — Burhan Wani’s killing, when he could have been arrested, and the gaping holes in the security apparatus in Uri — have inflicted virtually irreparable damage to India-Pakistan relations.
Unrest in Kashmir
Or when Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif told Modi while hosting the latter at his Lahore residence on December 25, 2015: “Ab yahaan aana jaana laga rehega” (now there will be more comings and goings).
It was the killing of Burhan Wani, the Hizbul Mujahideen “commander” in Kashmir, by the Indian security forces, which scotched all the chances of the India-Pakistan relations moving forward.
For Pakistan, the unrest in the Kashmir Valley after Wani’s death provided an excellent opportunity to up the ante against India. However, it probably didn’t expect that the heightened tension will persuade India to pay Pakistan back in its own coin by raking up the issues of Balochistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. The resultant complications, exacerbated by India’s security lapses in guarding the Uri camp, have ruled out any possibility of the mutual relations becoming normal in the foreseeable future.
Therefore, two incidents — Wani’s killing, when he could have been arrested, and the gaping holes in the security apparatus in Uri — have inflicted virtually irreparable damage to India-Pakistan relations.
India will now have to look for ways to find its way back after the Uri tragedy, which has severely dented Modi’s macho image and falsified his pre-election rhetoric. On the other hand, Pakistan may be convinced that it has India well and truly on the ropes — unable to hit back militarily even as suicide squads carry on their depredations on Indian territory. Right-wingers in India are in the habit of pointing out that Israel does not hesitate to hit back at the opponent under similar circumstances. But there is a major difference. While Israel’s wrath is vented on the weak and defenceless Palestinians, it could not but watch quietly as Iran built its nuclear potential.
India, therefore, has no option but to adopt measures like reshaping diplomatic relations, changing the contours of its trade ties, or unilaterally abrogating the Indus water-sharing treaty, or raising its defence budget to a level that Pakistan will not be able to match, or firming up India’s military ties with Afghanistan.