Iran wary of rising US hostility to deal
Series of appointments have signalled Trump is likely to take a hard line on Tehran, nuclear pact
Ayear after its nuclear deal took effect, Iran is increasingly concerned over the arrival of US President-elect Donald Trump, who has threatened to tear up the historic accord.
Analysts say it is unlikely the Trump administration will completely dismantle the agreement, which he described as “the worst deal ever negotiated”.
A series of cabinet appointments, however, have signalled Trump is likely to take a hard line on Tehran.
And that will ratchet up pressure on Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani, who is making the nuclear deal a centrepiece of his re-election bid this year.
“Some of the people who are taking office in the executive branch have a long history of being against Iran,” said Foad Izadi, a professor of international studies at Tehran University.
“We are going to see a harsher policy toward Iran during the Trump administration,” he said.
On Sunday, Iran’s top negotiator in the nuclear talks accused Washington of doing “whatever it can to slow down Iran’s progress” after the deal.
“In the last 12 months, we have witnessed delays and the disrespecting of promises by the US and some countries. Their hostility increases by the day,” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters.
In confirmation hearings ahead of Trump’s January 20 inauguration, several of his cabinet nominees made clear their opposition to a further softening of ties with Tehran.
‘Full review’ plan
Secretary of state nominee Rex Tillerson said he would recommend a “full review” of the nuclear agreement.
Defence secretary pick James Mattis said Washington needed to “live up” to its word on the accord, but also described Iran as “the biggest destabilising force in the Middle East”.
Despite his fierce rhetoric and the views of senior cabinet members, Trump is not likely to try to reverse the deal, experts say.
“The situation may become worse, but the (nuclear deal) will not be torn up, simply because that’s stupid,” said Nasser Hadian, another professor of international relations at Tehran University. The agreement, which lifted a wide range of international sanctions in exchange for limits on Iran’s nuclear programme, took effect on January 16, 2016 following years of talks.
Negotiated by Tehran and six world powers, including the United States, Russia and China, the agreement was widely seen as a major victory for international diplomacy.
That would make reneging on the deal nearly impossible and fraught with huge risks, analysts say.
“Even the American hawks are all saying don’t tear it up,” Hadian said.
Instead, Hadian said, the Trump administration is likely to put pressure on Iran in areas outside the nuclear agreement, including with more sanctions based on its human rights record, ballistic missile programme and alleged support for “terrorism” in the Middle East. EU foreign affairs head Federica Mogherini yesterday insisted the bloc will stand by the Iran nuclear accord, bluntly condemned by US President-elect Donald Trump, because it serves Europe’s security needs.
“It is proof that diplomacy works and delivers ... The European Union will continue to work for the respect and implementation of this extremely important deal, most of all for our security,” Mogherini said.
Trump has repeatedly blasted the nuclear accord with Iran as “one of the dumbest deals I have ever seen”, claiming it will not stop Tehran getting atomic weapons.
He repeated the charge in interviews with top European newspapers on Sunday when he also cast fresh doubt on Nato’s role and the EU’s future after Brexit.
Mogherini said she would not comment on his remarks, but claimed — on the first anniversary of the accord she helped negotiate — that much had been accomplished.
The agreement “has delivered both on the nuclear-related commitments Iran took and on the firm determination of the international community to fully implement this deal”, she said.
As far as the EU was concerned, the accord had resulted in increased trade and economic ties, “which is really significant”, she added.