Turkey’s political reforms need popular approval

Erdogan has long sought greater powers, and those proposals must pass by referendum in the spring

The people of Turkey are likely going to the polls in a matter of weeks to decide in a referendum, on a series of constitutional reforms. The effect of this package of governmental chances is to formalise an arrangement whereby more political power will be centred on the office of the presidency. They are reforms that have long been sought by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and will grant him more powers to issue decrees and permit him to be a member of a political party. The plans envisage presidential and general elections in 2019 with a president eligible to serve a maximum two five-year terms.

The package passed a first round of parliamentary hurdles on Sunday even with members staging a fist fight over the new powers. There are fears that the reforms, if ultimately approved by referendum, will give Erdogan unprecedented authoritarian powers. It also likely sets up Erdogan on a collision course once more with the military.

Traditionally, the armed forces have acted as a bulwark in support of the principles of a secularist republic, and they have intervened in a series of coups to protect their broad and inclusive secularist outlook. Indeed, a military coup attempt last summer failed, setting off a political and constitutional crisis in Turkey that has yet to be fully resolved.

The longer Erdogan has remained in power, either first as Prime Minister and now in the presidential palace in Ankara, he has long-sought greater powers to rule. While the reform package needs 330 of the 550 votes in parliament to pass, it offers Turkey’s voters a chance to express their opinion on his rule. And that’s a serious consideration.