Syria talks to cement Russia’s military win

PUTIN WANTS TO ELIMINATE ANY CHANCE FOR AL ASSAD REMOVAL

S yrian rebels are sending more than a dozen representatives this week to Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, for talks with government representatives, the first such negotiations between the two sides in a year.

But the loss of Aleppo, the election of Donald Trump and the pivot of Turkey toward Russia has left the opposition with very little room to manoeuvre.

Without much foreign support and with Syria’s wider rebellion in crisis, the opposition will be negotiating for scraps, having been forced to take part in a Russia-led initiative that won’t challenge President Bashar Al Assad’s hold on power.

“They have no choice. With Trump’s win, any lingering hope to push the West into increasing its rebel support is lost,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Monday’s scheduled meeting in Astana highlights the dramatic changes in the year since the last talks broke down in Geneva.

Russia’s massive military intervention has unequivocally given Al Assad the upper hand, leaving his forces in control of Syria’s major cities and key population centres.

In the most significant setback for the rebellion since the conflict in Syria began in March 2011, pro-government forces recaptured the northern city of Aleppo in December.

For the rebels, it was an emotional departure from a place that once represented the dream of a Syria free of Al Assad.

It will be difficult for them to recover from such a defeat.

“The Russians have dealt us a military defeat in Aleppo,” said Yasser Al Yousuf, spokesman for the Noor Al Deen Al Zinki rebel group. “Now they are trying to deal us another defeat, politically,” he said.

“Putin’s rush to establish a new political framework is designed to cement the Kremlin’s position as the architect of a political solution,” said Ayham Kamel, Middle East and North Africa director at Eurasia Group.

He said Putin’s effort is set to eliminate any negotiating structure that would require Al Assad’s removal.

Meanwhile, Russia said yesterday it was to significantly expand its naval facility in the Mediterranean port of Tartus and keep using it for decades to come.

The facility is the only such outpost Russia has outside the former Soviet Union.

Under the agreement released on Friday, Syria has offered Russia free use of the Soviet-era facility for 49 years. The term can be automatically extended for further 25-year periods if neither side objects.

The deal signed in Damascus also allows Russia to modernise the site so that it can host up to 11 ships at a time, including the nuclear-powered ones.