Groundswell in anti-elite feeling in France
Unknown three years ago, former banker Emmanuel Macron is now a real contender to become the country’s next president
mmanuel Macron is eloquent, charismatic and ambitious, and in two months’ time — aged just 39 — he could become the president of France, head of state of one of the European Union’s most senior partners.
Yet, three years ago, when he was appointed minister of the economy, few people in France had even heard of him. Some say that President Francois Hollande now bitterly regrets that appointment, because after only two years in the job, Macron resigned to form his own political movement, “En Marche!” (in English: “Let’s Go” or “On the Move”). Since then, Macron has succeeded in drawing huge, enthusiastic crowds to his rallies across France. Critics say this is because he uses “double speak” to tell one lot of voters one thing and another lot something quite different, while never setting out any firm or coherent programme for France’s future or how he would govern.
Macron was in London on Wednesday, hoping to persuade a significant number of the 300,000 or so French nationals who live in the United Kingdom not only that it would be in the interest of France to vote for him, but also that they should dig into their pockets to provide the money that he desperately needs to fund his campaign. As En Marche! is not officially a party but a “movement”, it receives no public subsidy and has to rely on personal donations which, as Macron observes often, are limited by law to a maximum of €7,500 per person.
The French community in London is an important electorate for any French politician on the campaign trail, their economic power and close interest in French politics makes them a crucial target for this former Rothschild banker. Whether the London French are in any way reflective of opinion at home though is a moot point. At the last presidential election, in 2012, 48 per cent of them voted for Hollande and 52 per cent for his rival Nicolas Sarkozy. That was the exact opposite of the way the vote broke down in France. So, what are Macron’s prospects of convincing these expat voters?
For the most part, they are young, live in urban parts of the UK and tend to work in financial services, retail, or in restaurants and bars. As such, they perhaps constitute a somewhat more cohesive group than Macron’s diverse followers in France. In London, they are numerous and prosperous enough to have given rise to a significant support structure for themselves and their families: French-language schools now operate in several of the wealthier parts of London as well-heeled expats try to make sure their children do not lose touch with their mother tongue and the French education system.
Whatever his chances with them, he is now regularly among the three main contenders, alongside Marine Le Pen and Francois Fillon, in one of the most open French Presidential races ever.
However, Macron’s poll ratings took a hit last week after he described colonisation as a “crime against humanity” during a visit to Algeria. That sparked outrage back home among conservative politicians and voters. Nearly 55 years after Algerian independence in 1962, France’s colonial history remains a highly sensitive subject. Opinion polls suggest that either Macron or Fillon will come second in the first round in April, behind Le Pen.
The fractious mood makes the election result almost impossible to predict, but if the pro-business Macron does become president, that, coupled with Britain’s approaching Brexit, could just mean some changes for Britain too, as some French expats who resisted Hollande’s charms might choose to return to their pays natal and take their tax contributions with them. Benedicte Paviot is the UK correspondent for France24 television.
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