Possibility of a Modi second term strong enough
Indian PM’s success is based on his image of being a man of development, which is still untainted by depredations of saffronites
onsidering that the scoreline in the last round of assembly elections before Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third anniversary of the assumption of power was 3-2 in the Congress’s favour, one can only say that his approval rating has been average. True, the final line-up of winners became 4-1 because the prime minister’s factotums were able to dislodge the Congress from its No 1 position in Goa and Manipur with some nimble politicking.
But the fact remains that the supposedly moribund Congress won a handsome victory in Punjab over the Akali DalBharatiya Janata Party (BJP) combine and was initially the largest party in the Goa and Manipur legislatures as well.
It was the BJP’s overwhelming success in Uttar Pradesh (UP), however, which reinforced Modi’s larger-than-life image. But the reality is more mundane even if India has been able to emerge from the policy paralysis of the twilight years of the Manmohan Singh government by achieving a more than seven per cent growth rate — up from 5.6 per cent in 2012-13 and 6.6 per cent in 2013-14.
However, the availability of jobs fell to its lowest level in 2015 and 2016 with figures of 155,000 and 231,000 new jobs, compared to one million in 2009, which was Manmohan Singh’s best year before Sonia Gandhi’s populism undercut the economic reforms.
The reason for the slow job growth is known. It is the increasing reliance on automation by the industries. But with 12 million to 15 million new job-seekers entering the market every year, India’s demographic dividend of having a young work force may become something of a nightmare.
If a recent study showed that 60 per cent of the respondents thought well of Modi, it meant that a large section of the people have retained their faith in his ability to take the country in the right economic direction. There may be misgivings about the activities of the saffron militants, but these are probably seen as being isolated incidents that are highlighted by the media and do not affect the average people who are more concerned about the continuing unemployment rate, which has been noted by 63 per cent of those surveyed, and inflation (66 per cent).
But what has apparently impressed the people the most is the absence of corruption at higher levels of the administration, which was the single most important factor leading to the Manmohan Singh government’s downfall.
Holding complete sway
However, as the disquiet about unemployment and high prices show, Modi is still basically on shaky ground, which has been camouflaged by his rhetoric and the Tina (There Is No Alternative) factor at the national level, although he has faced stiff resistance in several states. The results in Punjab, in the Karnataka byelections and West Bengal civic body polls have shown that it will take a long time, if ever, for the BJP’s dream of a Congress-mukt (free) Bharat to be fulfilled.
At the all-India level, however, Modi holds almost complete sway, for none of the other parties has measured up to popular expectations.
The forthcoming presidential election will be yet another test of the respective strengths of the BJP and its opponents. As of now, the former appears to have its nose ahead in the race, especially because of the expected support from the Telangana Rashtra Samiti and the YSR Congress. But much will depend on who the BJP chooses as its candidate, for it will show whether the party has risen in stature, after three years in power at the Centre, to be a genuine national party or is still beholden to its friend, philosopher and guide — the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Irrespective of who becomes the next president of India — whether a deeply-hued saffronite or someone perceived as neutral — the possibility of a second innings for Modi looms large at the end of his three years in office. His success is based on the image of being a man of development, which has remained untainted by the depredations of the gau rakshaks (cow vigilantes) and other Hindu fundamentalists.